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Competing in the Age of Artificial Intelligence

BCG Age-of-Artificial-Intelligence-ex03-lg_tcm80-218636

Until recently, artificial intelligence (AI) was similar to nuclear fusion in unfulfilled promise. It had been around a long time but had not reached the spectacular heights foreseen in its infancy. Now, however, AI is realizing its potential in achieving human-like capabilities, so it is time to ask: How can business leaders harness AI to take advantage of the specific strengths of man and machine? Read the rest of this entry »

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A CEO’s Guide to Navigating Brexit

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The Leave campaign’s victory, with a margin of 3.8 percentage points, has likely ushered in a protracted phase of uncertainty  for the UK, EU, and global economies. A systemic shock cutting across industries and borders, Brexit poses significant strategic challenges for business leaders as they navigate the fallout. Judging by our interactions with CEOs around the world to date, some of their burning questions are:
What are the elements of uncertainty created by Brexit?
How can leaders develop a specific view of the industry- and firm-level implications?
What are the first-response imperatives for corporate leaders?
What structural changes to the business environment are triggered by Brexit, and how do we adapt to them?
This is how we recommend CEOs approach these difficult questions:
Identify the Sources of Uncertainty
The uncertainties that come with Brexit can be ordered into four categories. While the overall directional impact is generally clear, it’s the magnitude, duration, and differential that are more critical to determine.
Political Process. There are significant drivers of uncertainty domestically and abroad. At home, the UK faces dissolution pressures if Scotland seeks to salvage its EU membership, while the EU has every incentive to make Brexit a painful experience to deter other defectors, making the outcome of negotiations difficult to predict. These unknowns have the potential to influence the evolution of the financial, institutional, and real economies.
Financial Economy. The directional impact on key prices was widely predicted—and strong corrections to the pound (–11% versus
the dollar) and to equities (–13.6% FTSE250) were indeed recorded in the first two sessions after the vote. The Bank of  England will likely lower policy rates, or even adopt negative interest rates. What drives uncertainty are the magnitude and duration of these corrections; as prices guide resource allocation, their volatility and uncertainty interfere with planning and investment decisions.
Trade Regime. The reconstruction challenge for the UK’s trade regime is clear. The EU represents 47% of UK exports, facilitates an additional 13% through non-EU trade deals, and currently negotiates with countries worth an additional 21% of  UK exports. While the UK would need only eight bilateral trade agreements to cover 80% of its current exports, there is a long tail of 18 additional countries worth more than $1 billion in UK exports and an additional 132 countries to cover all existing exports. Both internal and external factors drive uncertainty about the duration and outcome of the reconstruction challenge—for example, the UK’s ability to negotiate agreements, having outsourced this task to Brussels for 40 years, or trade partners’ willingness to engage with Britain in a constructive and timely manner.
Real Economy. The transmission mechanism to the real economy is primarily via delayed or canceled investment decisions or the anticipatory redeployment of employment or production assets. Here, too, the directional impact has been analyzed credibly, with estimates ranging from 3% to 9% of GDP loss. Here it is the speed, depth, and duration of these effects—on demand, consumption, and employment across industries—that drive uncertainty.
Determine the Specific Industry- and Firm-Level Implications Industries and individual companies vary widely in terms of the impact on the uncertainties outlined above, due to their differential dependence on UK and EU production, demand and trade, global trade, regulation, and integration into EU structures (such as R&D subsidies and EU norms and standards). Therefore each company needs to carry out (or take to the next
level) its own specific impact analysis.
It is impossible to forecast precise impact with confidence, given that exit terms, timing, and knock-on implications are all uncertain. A scenario-based approach to planning, modeling, and preparing for multiple outcomes is therefore recommended.

This can be done in four steps:

More:  www.hbr.org.

Authors:

Martin Reeves is a senior partner and managing director in the New York office of The Boston Consulting Group, the director  of the BCG Henderson Institute, and a coauthor of Your Strategy Needs a Strategy, Harvard Business Review Press, 2015.
Philipp Carlsson-Szlezak is the firm’s chief economist and head of BCG’s Center for Macroeconomics.

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Prawo restrukturyzacyjne otwiera nowe możliwości przed firmami zagrożonymi upadłością

EY 2016-03-24 Prawo restrukturyzacyjne otwiera nowe TABELA

Łatwiejsza i szybsza procedura, uniknięcie upadłości, możliwość normalnego prowadzenia działalności gospodarczej – to tylko kilka z rozwiązań, które wprowadza prawo restrukturyzacyjne. Pomimo że ustawa obowiązuje dopiero od początku roku, już pojawiły się pierwsze wnioski o otwarcie postępowania restrukturyzacyjnego. Read the rest of this entry »

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Changing the nature of board engagement

McK 2016-02 Survay Toward a value-creating board png_QWeb_BoardEngagement_ex1 McK 2015-04 Changing the nature of board engagement COVER

Five tips for directors and CEOs striving to make the most of their limited time.

“Ask me for anything,” Napoleon Bonaparte once remarked, “but time.” Board members today also don’t have that luxury. Directors remain under pressure from activist investors and other constituents, regulation is becoming more demanding, and  businesses are growing more complex. McKinsey research suggests that the most effective directors are meeting these  challenges by spending twice as many days a year on board activities as other directors do.

As directors and management teams adapt, they’re bumping into limits—both on the amount of time directors can be asked to spend before the role is no longer attractive and on the scope of the activities they can undertake before creating  organizational noise or concerns among top executives about micromanagement. We recently discussed some of these tensions with board members and executives at Prium, a New York–based forum for CEOs.3 The ideas that emerged, while far from definitive, provide constructive lessons for boardrooms. If there’s one overriding theme, it’s that boosting effectiveness isn’t just about spending more time; it’s also about changing the nature of the engagement between directors and the  executive teams they work with.
Boosting the effectiveness of boards isn’t just about spending more time.

Engaging between meetings.

Engaging with strategy as it’s forming.

Engaging on talent.

Engaging the field.

Engaging on the tough questions.

More:  mckinsey.com; hbr.org.

Authors: Bill Huyett is a director in McKinsey’s Boston office, and Rodney Zemmel is a director in the New York office.

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Five Things Every CEO Must Do in the Next Era of Globalization

BCG 2016 Five Things Every CEO Must Do  COVER

The huge wave of globalization that took place over the last two decades has come to an end. The big winners are those companies that have established a significant international footprint—especially in emerging markets—pulling ahead of companies with a regional or domestic focus…

Globalization is not dead. Rather, it is morphing into a more nuanced and more complex phase, with the inexorable forces that drove the previous phase still very much alive. The emerging markets will continue to be the key source of growth, owing to their favorable demographics, rising middle classes (which will increasingly define consumer demand and choices), and new generation of “challenger” companies (which will seek partners in their quest to become global market leaders). As we move into this next stage of globalization, the gaps between the global haves and the nonglobal have-nots are likely to widen even further, creating a real chasm.

So, if you want to be truly successful over the next ten years, the big question you should ask yourself isn’t “Should my company be global?” Instead, it should be “How can I go global in a successful and sustainable way?” And this question must be asked—and answered—by CEOs of companies not only in the U.S., Europe, Japan, and other developed markets. Because frankly, if you run a company based in China or India or Brazil (or any other emerging market) and you have global ambitions, the choices you face are no different from those facing CEOs in developed markets, as are the factors critical to your success. And now is the time to make those decisions, when there is new and energetic national leadership in key emerging markets such as China, India, and Indonesia, when growth is returning to the U.S., and when a new realism regarding global trade policies is emerging.

You should take stock of what has been achieved and prepare for this next phase in globalization. To help you think about your company’s global future, we have developed a framework from our experience working with many global “winners” and our discussions with leaders of global companies around the world. Of course, every company has its own unique characteristics, its own set of opportunities and challenges. Even so, in our view, every CEO will have to successfully address five dimensions: the company’s geographic position, the rapid pace of change, the company’s organization model, its culture, and the CEO’s own personal leadership.
1. How to Position Your Company Geographically

2. How to Deal with Rapidly Changing Conditions Around the World

3. How to Organize Your Company

4. How to Develop a Global Culture

5. How to Lead a Global Company

Authors:     Hans-Paul Bürkner,     Chairman,     Frankfurt;     Arindam Bhattacharya,     Senior Partner & Managing Director,     New Delhi;     Jorge Becerra,     Senior Partner & Managing Director,     Santiago

More: BCG Perspectives