Anti-equilibrium Archive

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McKinsey – Economic Conditions Snapshot

Global respondents see trade-policy changes as rising risks to growth, and those in developed economies report a more cautious outlook overall than their emerging-economy peers.

Respondents around the world are sanguine about the current state of the global economy and their economies at home, according to McKinsey’s newest survey on economic conditions. But as they look ahead, they are less likely to expect global improvements, and their views divide along regional lines. Respondents in developed economies report a much more guarded outlook on their own economies, the world economy as a whole, and their trade prospects, relative to their peers in emerging economies. In particular, those in North America are more likely than others to expect declining economic conditions and trade levels, as well as changes in trade policy.

Overall, the results underline the central role that the United States plays in respondents’ thinking about growth prospects. When respondents were asked which countries will provide their companies with the biggest growth opportunities in the next year, they most often cite the United States, where interest rates—along with trade policy—have become outsize concerns. In every other region, executives also cite changes in trade policy as a risk to global growth. Since our previous survey, the share saying so has more than doubled, and the issue has also emerged as a growing risk to domestic growth and to the growth of respondents’ companies.

Increasing hopefulness in emerging economies, and waning expectations in developed ones

As we saw in the past two surveys, respondents’ views on current economic conditions remain decidedly upbeat. Fifty-eight percent of all respondents say conditions in their home economies are better now than they were six months ago—with those in India and Latin America reporting the rosiest views. Furthermore, 54 percent of respondents say global conditions are better now than they were six months ago. But their outlooks on future economic conditions diverge by region (Exhibit 1). When asked about their home economies six months from now, the shares expecting improvements range from less than 40 percent in developed Asia and North America to upward of 70 percent in India.

The contributors to the development and analysis of this survey include Sven Smit, a senior partner in McKinsey’s Amsterdam office. He wishes to thank Alan FitzGerald and Vivien Singer for their contributions to this article.

More: McKinsey

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W tym roku przychody z esportu przekroczą po raz pierwszy miliard dolarów

   

Około 75 proc. kibiców elektronicznych rozgrywek sportowych to przedstawiciele pokolenia milenialsów

Czy esport to wciąż jedynie rozrywka dla pasjonatów gier komputerowych czy już poważna część biznesu sportowego? Zdaniem ekspertów firmy doradczej Deloitte dynamiki rozwoju sportu elektronicznego nie można lekceważyć, co zauważają również koncerny z branży TMT inwestujące w ten segment. W 2018 roku przychody z tytułu wydarzeń i relacji na żywo związanych z esportem przekroczą w skali globalnej po raz pierwszy miliard dolarów. Najszybciej rynek ten rozwija się w Chinach i Ameryce Północnej.

Miliard dolarów to wciąż niewielki odsetek przychodów, które wygenerują wydarzenia i transmisje sportowe dyscyplin tradycyjnych. Według najnowszego raportu Deloitte „TMT Predictions” w 2018 roku będą to 33 mld dolarów. Najwyższe przychody spodziewane są w związku z zakończonymi niedawno Igrzyskami Olimpijskimi w Korei Południowej i odbywającymi się w czerwcu Mistrzostwami Świata w piłce nożnej w Rosji. Jak wyliczają eksperci Deloitte najpopularniejsze dyscypliny sportowe na świecie, a tym samym przyciągające największe zainteresowanie kibiców i sponsorów, to piłka nożna, rugby i baseball.

Popularność esportu rośnie

W dalszym ciągu niewiele osób wie, o co chodzi w esporcie. Nie rozumieją, że rywalizacja graczy komputerowych może przyciągać fanów i pieniądze, ale to już stało się faktem. Jednocześnie kibice przeceniają obecny rozmiar rynku, wierząc, że roczne przychody liczone są już w miliardach dolarów i porównując go do sportów tradycyjnych. Do tego jeszcze daleka droga – mówi Marcin Diakonowicz, Partner, Lider Sports Business Group, Deloitte. Dziś duże wydarzenie esportowe może przyciągnąć 40 tys. osób oglądających na żywo i dziesiątki milionów oglądających go w sieci. – Esport będzie się sukcesywnie rozwijał, a wraz z tym będzie również rosła ranga imprez – dodaje.

W tym roku nie zabraknie jednak imprez, które przyciągną kibiców esportu. Na początku marca zakończył się Intel Extreme Masters World Championship Katowice 2018, który po raz kolejny przyciągnął sporą grupę kibiców. Przed nami jeszcze chociażby rozgrywki Dota 2 International, które odbędą się w sierpniu. Pula nagród zeszłorocznej edycji to prawie 25 mln dolarów. Również w obszarze gier sportowych szykują się ciekawe wydarzenia w tym nowa odsłona FIFA Interactive World Cup pod nową nazwą FIFA eWorld Cup. Dla klubów sportowych jest to nie tylko okazja do wygenerowania dodatkowych przychodów, ale też wzmocnienia swojej globalnej marki. Co ważne rozgrywki esportowe zostały włączone do programu odbywających się w Chinach w 2022 roku Igrzysk Azjatyckich.
Przychody z reklam i treści premium. Dynamika wzrostu esportu w ostatnich latach jest imponująca. Jeszcze w 2015 roku przychody w skali globalnej z tego tytułu wynosiły 325 mln dolarów, w tym roku ma być już miliard dolarów. Tylko w Niemczech szacuje się, że przychody z esportu w 2018 roku wyniosą 90 mln euro, w 2019 roku będzie to 110 mln, a w kolejnym 130 mln euro. Struktura przychodów w esporcie jest bardzo podobna jak w sporcie tradycyjnym. Są to przede wszystkim najszybciej rozwijające się sponsoring i wpływy komercyjne, a także wpływy z biletów oraz zawartości premium. Zgodnie z badaniem Deloitte pt. „Continue to Play” w Niemczech 16 proc. kibiców w wieku od 25 do 34 lat jest w stanie zapłacić za dodatkowe treści wysokiej jakości.

W 2016 roku kibice komputerowych rozgrywek spędzili łącznie sześć miliardów godzin, śledząc wydarzenia z tym związane. Było to pięć razy więcej niż w 2010 roku. Połowę tego czasu przed komputerami spędzili widzowie z Chin. Jednocześnie należy pamiętać, że liczba sześciu mld godzin odpowiada jedynie 5,33 dniom transmisji na żywo w USA. W ESL (Electronic Sports League), czyli największej lidze esportowej na świecie, zrzeszonych jest ponad 6 mln zawodników, którzy tworzą ponad pół miliona drużyn. W 2015 roku liga ta została kupiona przez szwedzki koncern medialny Modern Times za 87 mln dolarów.

Opłacalna inwestycja. Już w 2014 roku w esport zainwestował Amazon, który za niemal miliard dolarów kupił największą na świecie platformę do rozgrywek esportowych Twitch. Oficjalne statystyki opublikowane przez Twitch za 2017 rok prezentują dobrą sytuację platformy. Użytkownicy w 2017 roku obejrzeli ponad 355 mld minut transmisji, co oznacza wzrost o 21 proc. w stosunku do roku poprzedniego. Z kolei dziennie w 2017 roku serwis odwiedzało ponad 15 mln widzów. Niemniej konkurencja ze strony YouTube Gaming, czy nowych rozwiązań, jak chociażby niedawno powstała platforma Caffeine, która już rozpoczęła współpracę z firmą ESL, pokazuje, że nadal pozostaje miejsce dla nowych graczy w tym sektorze – Firmy technologiczne i medialne zwracają baczną uwagę na esport, zarówno pod względem możliwości rozwoju i dywersyfikacji przychodów, ale również dlatego, że trafiają w ten sposób do wąskiej i pożądanej grupy demograficznej – mówi Radosław Kubaś, Partner w dziale Konsultingu, Deloitte. Aż 75 proc. kibiców esportu to osoby w wieku od 18 do 34 lat. W większości są to mężczyźni (raport Deloitte „TMT Predictions 2016. E-Sport: bigger and smaller than you think”). Z kolei z badania Deloitte przeprowadzonego na rynku niemieckim wynika, że świadomość co do tego, czym jest esport maleje wraz z wiekiem. W grupie osób od 14 do 18 lat termin ten i jego znaczenie zna 45 proc. ankietowanych. W grupie respondentów powyżej 65 lat odsetek ten maleje do 7 proc.

Esport w Polsce. Tempo wzrostu odbiorców esportu w Polsce jest imponujące. Według prognoz przedstawionych w raporcie firmy PayPal i SuperData, w 2018 roku liczba unikalnych widzów będzie bliska 850 tys. i wzrośnie o 29 proc. rok do roku. Co więcej, to najlepszy wynik spośród ośmiu krajów przedstawionych w raporcie. Jesteśmy w momencie bardzo dynamicznego rozwoju. W dużej mierze wynika to z wykorzystania twórczości youtuberów i streamerów do promowania turniejów, drużyn i eventów. Na dodatek atrakcyjność medialna esportu jest skumulowana tylko w komunikacji digitalowej – mówi Wojciech Jeznach, członek zarządu Fantasy Expo. PGL Major w Krakowie w momencie szczytowej oglądalności na Twitchu obserwowało 105,9 tys. widzów, średni kontakt widza z transmisją wyniósł 2 godziny i 43 minuty, a pula nagród sięgnęła miliona dolarów. – Po wejściu do ramówek telewizyjnych przekroczymy kolejny próg zainteresowania oraz możliwości generowania wzrostu dochodów – dodaje.

Marcin Diakonowicz , Partner w Dziale Audit & Assurance; Radosław Kubaś ,Partner;

Anna Bracik , Clients & Markets; Paweł Jakóbik , Asystent w zespole Clients & Markets

 

 

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How artificial intelligence and data add value to businesses

Artificial intelligence will transform many companies and create completely new types of businesses. The cofounder of Coursera, AI Fund, and Landing.AI shares how businesses can benefit.

Artificial intelligence (AI) is at the cutting edge of innovation. But how do companies find the expertise necessary to utilize it, and then take it to market? In this video, recorded at the Aspen Ideas Festival in June, Andrew Ng, cofounder of Coursera, AI Fund, and Landing.AI, discusses the difference between an AI-enabled business versus a true AI company, and how businesses can organize, hire, and make use of AI to add value.

How can AI create value for business right now?

Almost all the economic value created by AI is through one type of technology, which learns inputs, outputs, or maybe A-to-B mappings, such as you might input an email, telling you it’s spam or not. For speech recognition, you input an audio clip and output a text transcript. For machine translation, input an English sentence, output a Chinese sentence. For a self-driving car, input a picture of what’s in front of your car and your radar readings and output the position of the other cars.

What has changed about AI in recent years?

The technical ideas have, for the most part, been around for many decades, but we have only recently brought enough computation power and data to this form of AI to make it work really well. And this type of A-to-B mapping, the technical term is supervised learning. This one idea by itself is enough to transform multiple industries.

What is the impact of AI on automation?

Think automation on steroids. Until recently, there were some things that we could automate with computers. Thanks to the recent rise of AI, especially supervised learning, machine learning, the set of things we know how to automate is much bigger.

Andrew Ng is the cofounder of Coursera, AI Fund, Landing.AI, and Google Brain. He is an adjunct professor at Stanford University and was previously chief scientist at Baidu. Michael Chui, a partner of the McKinsey Global Institute based in McKinsey’s San Francisco office, conducted this interview. Article Actions

More: Video McKinsey Global Institute

 

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BCG Research – Corporate Transformations Are Risky

but Evidence Shows How Leaders Can Improve Odds of Success

Many Companies Follow Their Gut Rather Than Seek Evidence of What Works, According to BCG Research Published in MIT Sloan Management Review.  Despite the frequent need for transformation—and the growing risk of failure—too many company transformations are guided by intuition, not by empirical evidence.

Research underpinning the design and execution of turnarounds and transformations is surprisingly thin, leading companies to commit to high-cost, high-risk initiatives without a clear understanding of the actions that will lead to lasting results. But a study by The Boston Consulting Group (BCG) and the BCG Henderson Institute has found several factors that increase the chances of success. The findings are published on the MIT Sloan Management Review website.

“Corporate transformations are often guided by beliefs, that, while seemingly plausible, are more anecdotal than empirical in nature,” said report coauthor Martin Reeves, a Senior Partner at BCG and Director of the BCG Henderson Institute. “It’s time for a more evidence-based approach.”

BCG studied US public companies and focused in on more than 300 with over $10 billion in market capitalization and with an urgent need to transform: their total shareholder return (TSR) had fallen 10 percentage points or more relative to their peers’ over a two-year period. The research covers the period 2004-2016.

The article points out that:

  • At any time during the study, a third of large US companies were experiencing a severe decline in their ability to create shareholder value, demonstrating a need for fundamental change.
  • Successful recovery is the exception, not the rule. Only one-quarter of the companies were able to outperform their industry in the short and long run after the point of TSR deterioration, and this trend has worsened: the transformation success rate was 30% in 2001, and only 25% in 2012.
  • The more severe and protracted the downturn, the worse the results. Of companies that suffered a two-year annualized TSR deterioration of more than 20 percentage points, 95% failed to return to their prior level of performance.

Five factors have proven to increase the odds of successful transformations, especially if used in combination

  • Cost cutting alone is not enough to start a transformation process. Most successful companies also focus on raising investor expectations with credible plans. Many companies that successfully recovered from severe TSR deterioration did indeed cut costs during the first year. But resetting investor expectations (as measured by valuation relative to earnings) was a stronger driver of short-run TSR recovery, accounting for 37% of outperformance. “Leaders must also regain investor confidence by showing how they will leverage their newfound flexibility,” Reeves said.
  • Revenue growth is the key driver of long-term success, so transformations must introduce a “second chapter.” After the first year of transformation, revenue growth became an increasingly important driver. By year five, it outweighed both cost cutting and investor expectations. “Transformation efforts cannot focus solely on short-term operational improvements,” said Reeves. “The second chapter requires that leaders challenge the foundations of the company’s business model, create a new vision for growth, and commit to see the program through.”
  • Long-term strategy and research-and-development (R&D) investment are correlated with success, especially in turbulent environments. Companies with an above-average long-term strategic orientation (as measured by an artificial intelligence algorithm developed by the BCG Henderson Institute that uses natural language processing to analyze company reports) outperformed those with a below-average orientation by 4.8 percentage points. In turbulent environments, the difference was even greater: 7 percentage points. In aggregate, companies with above-average R&D spending perform substantially better (5.1 percentage points) than those with below-average spending.
  • New leadership—especially when brought in from outside—can improve the odds of success. Only 24% of the companies launching a transformation program changed CEOs (compared with 19% at all comparable companies, including those not transforming). But, on average, companies that changed CEOs outperformed: they increased TSR by 9.2 percentage points over a five-year span, compared with 4.6 percentage points for those with incumbent CEOs. External hires performed better in the aggregate, but they had a wider range of both positive and negative outcomes than internal hires. “Companies that go to the outside need a tolerance for risk,” said report coauthor Lars Fæste, a Senior Partner at BCG and global leader of the BCG Transformation practice and BCG TURN. A similar dynamic extends to the leadership team. Only 20% of transforming companies had high executive turnover (more than 20% of officers), but those that did improved TSR by 4.4 percentage points more than others.
  • Formalized transformation programs perform better on average, as long as they’re big and ambitious enough. More than half (57%) of the companies announced a formal transformation program within a year of TSR deterioration. “Those that did, did better,” said Fæste. “In the short run, they boosted investor confidence, and in the long run they achieved sustainable improvements in the business—they increased TSR by 5 percentage points in a five-year period.” The most successful programs were generally long-term—at least five years—and ambitious.

While each of these steps led to positive performance, the companies that did best were the ones that took several of them, not just one. For example, companies that changed CEOs and also had formal transformation programs gained 7.7 percentage points in TSR, compared to just 1.4 percentage points when they had formal programs but kept their incumbent leaders. “When these success factors are used jointly, they have an additive impact, greater than the sum of its parts,” Reeves said. “Companies that used at least four of the success factors in their transformations achieved the largest increase in TSR: a gain of 17.4 percentage points over five years.”

“Not every factor will be relevant in every transformation,” Reeves explained. “But given the stakes, leaders need and deserve evidence-based recommendations. Empirical evidence shows the significant factors in transformation success and the advantages of combining them. Companies can’t afford to ignore it.”

To read the article, visit https://sloanreview.mit.edu/article/the-truth-about-corporate-transformation/.

Eric Gregoire

About the BCG Henderson Institute

The BCG Henderson Institute is the Boston Consulting Group’s internal think tank, dedicated to exploring and developing valuable new insights from business, technology, and science by embracing the powerful technology of ideas. The Institute engages leaders in provocative discussion and experimentation to expand the boundaries of business theory and practice and to translate innovative ideas from within and beyond business. For more ideas and inspiration from the Institute, please visit https://www.bcg.com/bcg-henderson-institute/thought-leadership-ideas.aspx.

ABOUT THE BOSTON CONSULTING GROUP

The Boston Consulting Group (BCG) is a global management consulting firm and the world’s leading advisor on business strategy. We partner with clients from the private, public, and not-for-profit sectors in all regions to identify their highest-value opportunities, address their most critical challenges, and transform their enterprises. Our customized approach combines deep insight into the dynamics of companies and markets with close collaboration at all levels of the client organization. This ensures that our clients achieve sustainable competitive advantage, build more capable organizations, and secure lasting results. Founded in 1963, BCG is a private company with offices in more than 90 cities in 50 countries.

BCG Continues to be Named a Premier Employer and Ranks Near the Top of Fortune’s “100 Best Companies to Work For” List for a Fifth Straight Year

The Boston Consulting Group Continues Its Highly-Placed Fortune Magazine Ranking, Staying in the Top Five for Eight Consecutive Years and Is One of Only Two Companies to Make the Top Dozen Every Year Since 2006

The Boston Consulting Group (BCG), one of the world’s leading management consulting firms, has continued its extraordinary run near the top of Fortune’s 100 Best Companies to Work For list. Ranking number four, BCG has made the top five for five years in a row and is one of only two companies to be included in the top dozen every year since it began participating in 2006.

BCG’s focus on harnessing its collaborative culture, investing in learning and development, and offering career flexibility and global mobility are instrumental in attracting top talent. The firm’s world-class benefits and its partnership with global and local social impact organizations contribute to its strong performance on the Fortune list and burnish its reputation as a premier employer.

In its profile of BCG, Fortune said: “Equality of opportunity is prized at this global consultancy, which has spent over $100 million on a program to make work schedules more predictable in a 24/7 industry. Work/life balance makes ‘employees happier, more complete humans.’ And even junior staffers feel valued: ‘I have access to leadership worldwide,’ says one.”

The firm’s innovative work-life balance program, called PTO (which stands for predictability, teaming, and open communication), helps establish a detailed road map for each project, with transparent working norms and priorities (so low-value work doesn’t consume high-value personal and professional time) and a collectively agreed-on time-off goal for each team member. PTO provides a sustainable and predictable work path.

At BCG, diversity of expertise, experience, and background are fundamental to success. The firm takes a holistic approach across all people processes to create culturally adaptive teams and an inclusive workforce.

BCG also maintains well-established and engaged employee resource networks and has launched a wide range of diversity and inclusion initiatives to connect people across the organization. Among these are local and network office affiliation activities, an inclusion dialogue series, mentorships, and career development programs. In addition, the firm’s LGBT-friendly benefits and practices have been recognized as world class, as have its programs for working parents.

Great Place to Work, which provides the research underlying the Fortune rankings and conducts an extensive employee survey, noted in its review of BCG that:

  • 98% of employees say, “We have special and unique benefits here.”
  • 98% say, “People here are willing to give extra to get the job done.”
  • 98% say, “Management is honest and ethical in its business practices.”

Joe Davis, BCG’s chairman of North America, commented: “We continue to be honored by this recognition and are proud to have placed in the top five for five consecutive years and in the top ten for a decade. This recognition is a testament to our collective purpose—to unlock the potential of those who advance the world around us by driving inspired impact for our clients, leading with integrity, and growing our people.”

This year’s 100 Best Companies list and related stories will appear in the March 1 issue of Fortune, which goes on sale on February 19. They are available now online at Fortune.com/Best-Companies.

To arrange an interview with a BCG expert, please contact Alexandra Corriveau at +1 212 446 3261 or corriveau.alexandra@bcg.com.

About Fortune’s 100 Best Companies to Work For

To identify the 100 Best Companies to Work For, each year Fortune partners with Great Place to Work to conduct the most extensive employee survey in corporate America. Great Place to Work bases its ranking on a data-driven methodology applied to anonymous Trust Index survey responses from more than 315,000 employees at Great Place to Work–certified organizations with more than 1,000 employees and receive enough survey responses to achieve a 95% confidence level with no more than a 5% margin of error.

 

 

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Reflections from Davos 2018

About 200 business, government, and media leaders assembled to discuss Dominic Barton’s forthcoming book, “Talent Wins: The New Playbook for Putting People First.” Joining Dom onstage were Blackrock Chairman and CEO Larry Fink; Guardian Life President and CEO Deanna Mulligan; Majid Al Futtaim CEO Alain Bejjani; and Unilever Chief HR Officer Leena Nair. Financial Times Global Business Columnist and Associate Editor Rana Foroohar moderated.

by Dominic Barton

This year’s World Economic Forum (WEF) has just concluded—it was my ninth, and last, Davos as managing partner. In a sense, Davos is a window into much of the work we do across the firm—with our clients and on the most significant issues of our time.

Six themes we heard:

  1. Growth, growth, and more growth
  2. What could go wrong?
  3. Power politics
  4. Get ready for an even more intense wave of corporate transformation
  5. The next innovation imperative will be social innovation
  6. Talent as a CEO priority

And finally, one comment from an Indian CEO that seemed to capture the overall tenor of WEF 2018: “How the mood changes. A year ago, it was doom and gloom. Now the sun is shining. Time to stop talking and start doing.”

More: https://www.mckinsey.com/about-us/new-at-mckinsey-blog/reflections-from-davos-2018