Makroekonomia Archive

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McKinsey – Economic Conditions Snapshot

Global respondents see trade-policy changes as rising risks to growth, and those in developed economies report a more cautious outlook overall than their emerging-economy peers.

Respondents around the world are sanguine about the current state of the global economy and their economies at home, according to McKinsey’s newest survey on economic conditions. But as they look ahead, they are less likely to expect global improvements, and their views divide along regional lines. Respondents in developed economies report a much more guarded outlook on their own economies, the world economy as a whole, and their trade prospects, relative to their peers in emerging economies. In particular, those in North America are more likely than others to expect declining economic conditions and trade levels, as well as changes in trade policy.

Overall, the results underline the central role that the United States plays in respondents’ thinking about growth prospects. When respondents were asked which countries will provide their companies with the biggest growth opportunities in the next year, they most often cite the United States, where interest rates—along with trade policy—have become outsize concerns. In every other region, executives also cite changes in trade policy as a risk to global growth. Since our previous survey, the share saying so has more than doubled, and the issue has also emerged as a growing risk to domestic growth and to the growth of respondents’ companies.

Increasing hopefulness in emerging economies, and waning expectations in developed ones

As we saw in the past two surveys, respondents’ views on current economic conditions remain decidedly upbeat. Fifty-eight percent of all respondents say conditions in their home economies are better now than they were six months ago—with those in India and Latin America reporting the rosiest views. Furthermore, 54 percent of respondents say global conditions are better now than they were six months ago. But their outlooks on future economic conditions diverge by region (Exhibit 1). When asked about their home economies six months from now, the shares expecting improvements range from less than 40 percent in developed Asia and North America to upward of 70 percent in India.

The contributors to the development and analysis of this survey include Sven Smit, a senior partner in McKinsey’s Amsterdam office. He wishes to thank Alan FitzGerald and Vivien Singer for their contributions to this article.

More: McKinsey

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EY Oil and gas M&A outlook positive despite deal volume at five-year low

  • Global oil and gas deal volume fell by 13% in 2017
  • Upstream deal value increased 30% year-on-year due to a strong first quarter
  • Robust M&A pipeline expected in 2018 as market sentiment improves

Global oil and gas deal volume hit a five-year low in 2017, and total global transaction value fell to US$343b from US$390b in 2016. This is according to the EY Global oil and gas transaction review 2017, which also found that while 2017 saw a 21% increase in megadeals (deals of more than US$1b), a lack of blockbuster deals (deals of more than US$50b) meant overall deal value fell. However, the 2018 outlook for mergers and acquisitions (M&A) remains optimistic, with upstream deal value increasing 30% year-on-year.

Andy Brogan, EY Global Oil & Gas Transactions Leader, says:

“Risk sensitivity and a continued focus on internal performance improvement may have delayed the uptick in deal volume we expected in 2017. But the need to demonstrate appropriate returns is now pushing companies to reposition their portfolios and seek economies of scale, which in turn we anticipate will underpin more M&A activity in 2018.”

Upstream deal value climbed to US$172b, characterized by a strong first quarter and outpacing average deal value across the rest of the year by more than 82%. North America dominated upstream activity, with deal value up 19% to US$94b in 2017. Last year also saw Europe’s best performance in more than five years at US$27b (excluding 2015’s Shell-BG deal).

Increasing activity among private equity players and the adoption of more innovative transaction structures are expected to drive upstream M&A in 2018, as joint ventures between independents become increasingly common and healthier balance sheets encourage growth the report finds.

Midstream deal volume was up 14% in 2017, but deal value contracted to US$84b – down 43% relative to 2016. And excluding blockbuster deals, total valuations continued a four-year downward trend. Meanwhile, the trend toward large North American transactions continued, accounting for nearly 90% of the top 20 deals. As commodity prices strengthen, the report anticipates a stronger midstream deal market in 2018, amid investment in North American shale basins and easing political tensions in the Middle East.

Downstream deal value declined 12% to US$59b in 2017, with the number of transactions also dropping 16% compared with 2016. This reflects less transaction activity and no movement in average deal size. However, deal values in 2017 were more than US$14b higher than the average recorded over the last five years. The US led other regions in both deal volume and value, with 43 transactions totaling US$32b.

This year is expected to see a continued focus on transactions in the downstream, as companies look to further balance portfolios across the value chain and seek growth opportunities.

Despite unreliable demand and aggressive price competition, oilfield services (OFS) operators increasingly focused on returns in 2017, yielding 215 deals – up 13% on 2016. Yet, at US$28b, deal value was down by 35% year-on-year, owing to the absence of large transformational deals. An increase in upstream capex spending and the improving oil price environment is expected to see OFS M&A activity continue to strengthen into 2018.

Brogan says: “A lack of blockbuster deals in 2017 highlights the industry’s sense of caution in the post-downturn era. But buyer and seller expectations have been narrowing and a robust pipeline of actionable M&A opportunities is now available, underpinned by an increase in the oil price, decreasing valuation gaps and improving market sentiment. We expect these trends to continue to prevail in 2018, with M&A activity flowing from portfolio optimization, increased access to capital markets and value chain integration.”

– Ends –

Notes to Editors

About EY

EY is a global leader in assurance, tax, transaction and advisory services. The insights and quality services we deliver help build trust and confidence in the capital markets and in economies the world over. We develop outstanding leaders who team to deliver on our promises to all of our stakeholders. In so doing, we play a critical role in building a better working world for our people, for our clients and for our communities.

EY refers to the global organization, and may refer to one or more, of the member firms of Ernst & Young Global Limited, each of which is a separate legal entity. Ernst & Young Global Limited, a UK company limited by guarantee, does not provide services to clients. For more information about our organization, please visit ey.com.

This news release has been issued by EYGM Limited, a member of the global EY organization that also does not provide any services to clients.

How EY’s Global Oil & Gas Sector can help your business

The oil and gas sector is constantly changing. Increasingly uncertain energy policies, geopolitical complexities, cost management and climate change all present significant challenges. EY’s Global Oil & Gas Sector supports a global network of more than 10,000 oil and gas professionals with extensive experience in providing assurance, tax, transaction and advisory services across the upstream, midstream, downstream and oil field subsectors. The sector team works to anticipate market trends, execute the mobility of our global resources and articulate points of view on relevant sector issues. With our deep sector focus, we can help your organization drive down costs and compete more effectively.

For more information, please visit ey.com/oilandgas.

About the EY Global oil and gas transactions review 2017

The EY Global oil and gas transaction review 2017 looks at significant trends in oil and gas deal activity throughout 2016 and the outlook for transactions in 2018. It considers the diverse dynamics in the upstream, downstream, midstream and oilfield services (OFS) segments, as well as the macro environment and regional trends, which can be found exclusively online. The report presents EY’s analysis of transaction data largely compiled by Derrick Petroleum Services.

For more information, please visit ey.com/oilandgas/transactions.

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Reflections from Davos 2018

About 200 business, government, and media leaders assembled to discuss Dominic Barton’s forthcoming book, “Talent Wins: The New Playbook for Putting People First.” Joining Dom onstage were Blackrock Chairman and CEO Larry Fink; Guardian Life President and CEO Deanna Mulligan; Majid Al Futtaim CEO Alain Bejjani; and Unilever Chief HR Officer Leena Nair. Financial Times Global Business Columnist and Associate Editor Rana Foroohar moderated.

by Dominic Barton

This year’s World Economic Forum (WEF) has just concluded—it was my ninth, and last, Davos as managing partner. In a sense, Davos is a window into much of the work we do across the firm—with our clients and on the most significant issues of our time.

Six themes we heard:

  1. Growth, growth, and more growth
  2. What could go wrong?
  3. Power politics
  4. Get ready for an even more intense wave of corporate transformation
  5. The next innovation imperative will be social innovation
  6. Talent as a CEO priority

And finally, one comment from an Indian CEO that seemed to capture the overall tenor of WEF 2018: “How the mood changes. A year ago, it was doom and gloom. Now the sun is shining. Time to stop talking and start doing.”

More: https://www.mckinsey.com/about-us/new-at-mckinsey-blog/reflections-from-davos-2018

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Globalize Compassion and Leave No One Behind

  

World Economic Forum Closes with Call to Action: Globalize Compassion and Leave No One Behind

by Fon Mathuros, Head of Media, World Economic Forum

The 48th World Economic Forum Annual Meeting closed today on a creative note with four artists sharing their visions of how painting, photography, film and dance can inspire empathy with other people’s stories. Across more than 400 sessions, one key theme kept emerging: the need to embrace our common humanity in the face of the rapid technological changes ushered in by the Fourth Industrial Revolution.

Wrapping up the final session, Sharan Burrow, General Secretary of the International Trade Union Confederation and one of the seven female Co-Chairs of the meeting, celebrated the spirit of inclusion, diversity and respect for human rights that characterized this year’s meeting. She paid tribute to the meeting’s artists, whose work put people at the centre of the story and concluded with a call to action: “Let’s ensure that Davos 2018 is just the beginning of a movement where we globalize compassion and ensure a world in which no one is left behind.”

The 48th Annual Meeting was convened under the theme, Creating a Shared Future in a Fractured World with the aim of identifying ways for humanity to work collectively once more in the face of urgent global and regional challenges. Here is a selection of outcomes of the Annual Meeting:

Mending our fractured world

Justin Trudeau, Prime Minister of Canada, announced that Canada will double its commitment to the Global Partnership for Education Fund, providing an extra $180 million to the fund between 2018 and 2020. Alexis Tsipras, Prime Minister of Greece, and Zoran Zaev, Prime Minister of the former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia, held the first meeting at prime-minister level for seven years. The discussion led to a framework being agreed to intensify the negotiations on an end to the naming dispute, which is being presided over by the UN. In addition to the West Balkans, the Forum’s series of Diplomacy Dialogues has committed to supplementing ongoing multilateral efforts in the Korean Peninsula, Venezuela, sub-Saharan Africa and Somalia. Looking to the Middle East and North Africa region, a Forum community of Israeli and Palestinian business leaders met at the Annual Meeting to renew their commitment to the two-state solution and pledge their support to strengthening the Palestinian economy given the opportunity of the Fourth Industrial Revolution. In the same region, the Forum also formed a new community of businesspeople who have committed to advise and support Haider Al Abadi, Prime Minister of Iraq, on the reconstruction of the country.

Denmark became the first European country to partner with the World Economic Forum. The scope of the agreement will see Denmark collaborate closely with the Forum in a number of areas, including promoting green growth, trade and education, gender and work. Denmark will also partner with the Forum’s Center for the Fourth Industrial Revolution in San Francisco as it works to design governance principles to shape the technologies of the future. The Government of Saudi Arabia signed a Letter of Intent to partner with the World Economic Forum. The scope of the agreement covers the Forum’s System Initiatives, the Global Centre for Cybersecurity and the Center for the Fourth Industrial Revolution.

Systems leadership

Preparing workers for the future: A Forum report published during the meeting, Towards a Reskilling Revolution, provides the guidance needed to find new, gainful employment for the millions of workers expected to lose their jobs due to technological change. Separately, the Forum announced two initiatives that will have a direct impact on workers: Closing the Skills Gap, a global, business-led scheme that aims to deliver new skills to 10 million workers by 2020; and the IT Industry Skills Initiative, whose SkillSET portal aims to reach 1 million IT workers by 2021.

Safeguarding our oceans: A new multistakeholder initiative, the Friends of Ocean Action initiative, was launched with the aim of delivering an “Ocean Action Track” to protect and conserve oceans, seas and marine resources. The partnership was announced by Isabella Lövin, Deputy Prime Minister of Sweden; and Peter Thomson, UN Special Envoy for the Ocean. Marc Benioff, Founder and Chairman of Salesforce.com, announced $4.5 million in funding through the Benioff Ocean Initiative to support the new initiative.

Closing the Gender Gap: Peru became the fourth country in Latin America to adopt the Forum’s Closing the Gender Gap model, following earlier adoption in Chile, Argentina and Panama. Five additional countries are considering adoption over the course of 2018.

Tackling waste and pollution: Leaders from some of the world’s largest companies, such as Alphabet, The Coca Cola Company, Royal Philips and Unilever, teamed up with the governments of Indonesia, Nigeria, the People’s Republic of China and Rwanda and international organizations to form the Platform for Accelerating the Circular Economy (PACE). The platform aims to tackle issues including electronic waste and plastics pollution by going beyond the 9% of waste that is currently cycled back into the economy after use.

Unlocking nature’s value: A new plan was announced to mimic the success of the human genome map by sequencing the DNA of all life on earth. Under the auspices of the Forum’s Fourth Industrial Revolution for the Earth initiative, two projects, the Earth Bio-Genome Project (EBP) and the Earth Bank of Codes will, if successful, help avert extinction as well as tackle bio-piracy and habitat loss by unlocking value from nature’s biological and biomimetic assets.

Making meat sustainable: A new Forum initiative, Meat: The Future will identify ways to transform the future of meat and protein production to deliver safe, affordable and sustainable protein in the face of rapidly growing global demand.

Bridging the digital divide: Mercedes Aráoz, Prime Minister of Peru, announced plans to launch an Internet for All programme in 2018.

Fighting financial crime and modern slavery: Thomson Reuters, Europol and the Forum are partnering to tackle money laundering and trafficking in human misery. The partnership will aim to raise greater awareness among global leaders, promote more effective information-sharing and improve compliance best practices.

Taking on fake news: A new joint venture funded by the Craig Newmark Foundation in collaboration with the World Economic Forum was launched. Bringing internet platform giants together with multistakeholder leaders, the initiative will be developed further through 2018. Meanwhile, a joint venture launched by Internews in collaboration with the Forum aimed to promote high-quality local news and information.

Secure air travel: The Forum was joined by the Government of Canada in launching a Known Traveller Digital Identity prototype to test emerging technologies such as biometrics and distributed ledger technologies that could facilitate more secure and seamless air travel.

Advancing the Fourth Industrial Revolution

Governing the Fourth Industrial Revolution: The Forum’s Center for the Fourth Industrial Revolution, which opened in March 2017, expanded with a number of new partnerships. New centres will be added to the network in India, Japan and the United Arab Emirates. Additionally, Bahrain, Denmark, the Inter-American Development Bank and the United Kingdom joined as partners alongside Deutsche Bank, Dubai Electricity and Water Authority and GAVI, the Vaccine Alliance.

Tackling the cyber threat: In response to the fastest-emerging global risk of our times, the Forum announced the launch of a Global Centre for Cybersecurity, a multistakeholder platform aimed at creating a safe operating environment for new technologies like artificial intelligence, robotics, drones, autonomous vehicles and the internet of things.

Accelerating innovation: The Forum launched its UpLink initiative as a platform to connect start-ups with multinational businesses, investors, universities, governments and other investors. To kick-off the platform, a collaboration with the International Finance Corporation (IFC) will see 50 outstanding start-ups from Latin America invited to participate at the World Economic Forum on Latin America in Brazil in March.

Rwanda: The Government of Rwanda became the first country to adopt performance-based regulation for all drones following a collaboration with the Forum’s Center for the Fourth Industrial Revolution. The new approach is aimed at simplifying procedures to encourage faster adoption of drone technology and greater deployment of drones for innovative uses.

Ethical science: The Forum’s community of Young Scientists launched an interdisciplinary Code of Ethics for Researchers aimed at safeguarding high standards of behaviour and clarifying social norms to allow scientists to operate independently.

On the Forum’s platform for Public-Private Cooperation

Empowering women entrepreneurs: The Mann Deshi Foundation, a rural Indian cooperative bank run by and for women established by the meeting’s Co-Chair Chetna Sinha, announced the launch of a Rs100 million fund to encourage more women at the bottom of the pyramid to become entrepreneurs.

Addressing up to gender bias: The Forum’s Global Shapers Community teamed with Procter & Gamble to raise awareness among young people about gender equality. The partnership will include a social media campaign and a $100,000 grant challenge to support grassroots, youth-led solutions.

Developing antibiotics: Netherlands-based Access to Medicine Foundation published the world’s first antimicrobial infection benchmark, which encourages greater research and development for new-generation antibiotics.

Football fund: Common Goal, co-founded by footballer Juan Mata, was launched as a programme aiming to break the cycle of poverty for 2.5 million people around the world. The plan has so far signed up 35 footballers to pledge 1% of their salaries to charities that use football as a tool for social change.

Valuing waste: Chile became only the second country in the world to implement a national plan to move to a circular economy. The scheme is the result of a partnership between TriCiclos and the Ellen MacArthur Foundation.

Relief and reconstruction: The International Trade Union Confederation teamed with US renewable energy firms Sesame Solar, SimpliPhi Power and Outback Power to deliver off-grid power to affiliates in Dominica along with emergency supplies and aid.

Mental health: CitiesRise, an initiative aimed at improving provision for affordable mental health support for young people, was launched with the support of public- and private-sector leaders in Kenya, Lebanon, Colombia, the United States and India, and supported by Philips, the World Health Organization, the World Bank and Harvard University. CitiesRise aims to reach 1 billion young people by 2030.

Community health: The CEOs of Last Mile Health Living Goods announced a $50 million collaboration to deploy 50,000 community health workers to deliver quality care door-to-door to 35 million people. Working with African governments, the initiative will use mobile technology to empower community health workers more cost-effectively than deploying doctors or nurses.

Culture: At the invitation of Swiss President Alain Berset, Europe’s ministers of culture gathered in Davos on 21 and 22 January. They discussed ways in which Baukultur for a better quality of life can be anchored in Europe, both politically and strategically.

Sustainability: The World Economic Forum has obtained independent recognition for sustainable event management of the Annual Meeting in Davos-Klosters and has received the ISO 20121 certification, following audits by DNVGL. PublicisLive, the Forum’s official provider of logistics and key support services, has received the same certification. The ISO 20121 standard enables event organizers to implement concrete sustainability actions in a rigorous way.

More than 3,000 participants from nearly 110 countries participated in over 400 sessions at the Annual Meeting. This year more than 340 public figures, including more than 70 heads of state and government and 45 heads of international organizations took part, a new record; 230 media representatives and almost 40 cultural leaders were represented.

Notes to editors:

Watch live webcasts of sessions and get more information about the meeting at http://wef.ch/am18
Guide to how to follow and embed sessions on your website at http://wef.ch/howtofollow
View the best photos from the event at http://wef.ch/pix
Read the Forum Agenda at http://wef.ch/agenda
Become a fan of the Forum on Facebook at http://wef.ch/facebook
Watch Forum videos at http://wef.ch/video
Follow the Forum on Twitter via @wef and @davos, and join the conversation using #wef18
Follow the Forum on Instagram at http://wef.ch/instagram
Follow the Forum on LinkedIn at http://wef.ch/linkedin
Learn about the Forum’s impact on http://wef.ch/impact
Subscribe to Forum news releases at http://wef.ch/news

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The Five Mys KPMG

The Five Mys Figure 1

The multidimensional customer

In an era defined by uncertainty, the companies that get closest to their customers will emerge ahead of the pack. This begins with an “outside-in” view, building new ways of understanding how and why people make decisions.

You already know that customer behavior is changing. Power has shifted from companies to consumers, the mobile phone has become the remote control of our lives, trust in institutions and traditional advertising has diminished. Customer trade-offs and decisions are more opaque and moving faster. You’re already aware that the structure and composition of industry has changed. New entrants with radically new business models are enacting disruption across the value chain, reshaping ecosystems from sector to sector. Meanwhile, company lifespans are shrinking and the paths to billion-dollar valuations are accelerating. All these challenges are well documented across business media, research reports and conference presentations. But how should you use this information to understand not only where your customers are today but where they’ll be tomorrow? How can you rethink the basis of competition and pivot your operations and business models to win in the battle for growth? It’s time for a new approach. One that employs a multidimensional framework to engage what is now a multidimensional consumer.

Genesis of our findings For several years, we’ve worked shoulder to shoulder with clients to understand customer attitudes, behavior and expectations in our present era of disruption and uncertainty. Faint signals of change grew louder and bigger patterns began to emerge beyond one individual sector, building a sense of urgency and leading to our belief that we’re witnessing a structural change, not a temporal one. As our teams constructed a new way of thinking about a changing customer, we embarked on a multifaceted research program to validate our thinking and bring to bear the voice of the consumer. Combined with the extensive, worldwide experience of KPMG’s network of member firms, this has enabled us to identify how best to engage the 21st-century consumer, and our approach provides a tangible framework to help companies identify, understand and respond to today’s changing customer.

The Five Mys

Through a multi-dimensional lens called the Five Mys, businesses gain access to predictive insights that navigate the complexity of consumer decision making. The Five Mys include: My Motivation, My Attention, My Connection, My Watch and My Wallet. Each of the Five Mys in isolation tells only part of the story: together they provide companies with a clear picture of the collective influences on today’s consumer and how those affect decisions, preferences, choices and spending.

“For years, marketers have touted demographic segmentation for targeting customers. Looking at demographics alone, however, risks missing the multifaceted way in which people make decisions.”

My Motivation: Characteristics that drive behaviors and expectations

My Attention: Ways we direct our attention and focus

My Connection: How we connect to devices, information and each other

My Watch: How we balance the constraints of time and how that changes across life events

My Wallet: How we adjust our share of wallet across life events

More: KPMG Report. Me, my life, my wallet