Makroekonomia Archive

0

Ericsson ConsumerLab Report – 10 Hot Consumer Trends 2018

Imagine you have just arrived home from work. You wave your hand, and the lamp turns on, flashing the light in greeting. The home speaker begins to play music, but when you give it an exasperated look, it turns off. You make a coffee, but grimace because it’s too bitter. The coffee machine immediately offers to add sugar or milk.

Two things are conspicuously absent from this vision of a not-too-distant future. One is an appliance with switches and knobs, and the other is a smartphone full of remote control apps. Our research indicates that consumers are increasingly moving towards a paradigmatic shift in how they expect to interact with technology. Ever more things are becoming connected, but the complexities of how to control them all are a different matter.

On the one hand, alternative yet equally good user interface solutions for simple functions have existed for much longer than we’ve had electronic gadgets. A Westerner who experiences an Asian meal for the first time soon finds out that the user interface to that meal is a pair of chopsticks rather than a knife and fork. On the other hand, mass-market acceptance of digital technology has made the proliferation of user interfaces practically infinite. Every new device with a screen adds new user interface variations, which are then multiplied by the number of apps within each gadget.

Today you have to know all the devices. But tomorrow all the devices will have to know you. If consumers continue to be faced with the prospect of learning and relearning how to use devices in the face of an ever-increasing pace of technological change, they will become increasingly reluctant to buy in to the future. We might already be close to that breaking point. The current generation of “flat” user interfaces do not use 3D effects or embellishments to make clickable interface elements, such as buttons, stand out. It is difficult for users to know where to click. As a result, they navigate web pages 22 percent slower.1 For this reason, our trends for 2018 and beyond focus on various aspects of more direct interaction between consumers and technology.

With 5G, connectivity is set to become ubiquitous. This might sound simple, but it involves a huge technology upgrade; devices must be able to relay complex human interaction data to cloud-based processing, and respond intuitively within milliseconds. The Internet of Things (IoT) must provide interoperability between all devices, and allow for mobility. Network availability also needs to be maintained, so that devices do not suddenly go offline and lose their human-like capabilities.

More: www.ericsson.com

0

ATK – Smart cities: Digital solutions for a more livable future

 

As cities get smarter, they are becoming more livable and more responsive—and today we are seeing only a preview of what technology could eventually do in the urban environment.

Until recently, city leaders thought of smart technologies primarily as tools for becoming more efficient behind the scenes. Now technology is being injected more directly into the lives of residents. Smartphones have become the keys to the city, putting instant information about transit, traffic, health services, safety alerts, and community news into millions of hands.

After a decade of trial and error, municipal leaders are realizing that smart-city strategies start with people, not technology. “Smartness” is not just about installing digital interfaces in traditional infrastructure or streamlining city operations. It is also about using technology and data purposefully to make better decisions and deliver a better quality of life.

Quality of life has many dimensions, from the air residents breathe to how safe they feel walking the streets. The latest report from the McKinsey Global Institute (MGI), Smart cities: Digital solutions for a more livable future (PDF–6MB), analyzes how dozens of digital applications address these kinds of practical and very human concerns. It finds that cities can use smart technologies to improve some key quality-of-life indicators by 10 to 30 percent—numbers that translate into lives saved, fewer crime incidents, shorter commutes, a reduced health burden, and carbon emissions averted.

  1. What makes a city smart?
  2. Smart-city technologies have substantial unrealized potential to improve the urban quality of life
  3. A look at current deployment in 50 cities around the world shows that even the most advanced still have a long way to go
  4. Smart cities change the economics of infrastructure and create room for partnerships and private-sector participation

What makes a city smart? Smart cities put data and digital technology to work to make better decisions and improve the quality of life. More comprehensive, real-time data gives agencies the ability to watch events as they unfold, understand how demand patterns are changing, and respond with faster and lower-cost solutions. Three layers work together to make a smart city hum. First is the technology base, which includes a critical mass of smartphones and sensors connected by high-speed communication networks. The second layer consists of specific applications. Translating raw data into alerts, insight, and action requires the right tools, and this is where technology providers and app developers come in. The third layer is usage by cities, companies, and the public. Many applications succeed only if they are widely adopted and manage to change behavior. They encourage people to use transit during off-hours, to change routes, to use less energy and water and to do so at different times of day, and to reduce strains on the healthcare system through preventive self-care.

By Jonathan Woetzel, Jaana Remes, Brodie Boland, Katrina Lv, Suveer Sinha, Gernot Strube, John Means, Jonathan Law, Andres Cadena, and Valerie von der Tann

More: https://www.mckinsey.com

0

McKinsey – Economic Conditions Snapshot

Global respondents see trade-policy changes as rising risks to growth, and those in developed economies report a more cautious outlook overall than their emerging-economy peers.

Respondents around the world are sanguine about the current state of the global economy and their economies at home, according to McKinsey’s newest survey on economic conditions. But as they look ahead, they are less likely to expect global improvements, and their views divide along regional lines. Respondents in developed economies report a much more guarded outlook on their own economies, the world economy as a whole, and their trade prospects, relative to their peers in emerging economies. In particular, those in North America are more likely than others to expect declining economic conditions and trade levels, as well as changes in trade policy.

Overall, the results underline the central role that the United States plays in respondents’ thinking about growth prospects. When respondents were asked which countries will provide their companies with the biggest growth opportunities in the next year, they most often cite the United States, where interest rates—along with trade policy—have become outsize concerns. In every other region, executives also cite changes in trade policy as a risk to global growth. Since our previous survey, the share saying so has more than doubled, and the issue has also emerged as a growing risk to domestic growth and to the growth of respondents’ companies.

Increasing hopefulness in emerging economies, and waning expectations in developed ones

As we saw in the past two surveys, respondents’ views on current economic conditions remain decidedly upbeat. Fifty-eight percent of all respondents say conditions in their home economies are better now than they were six months ago—with those in India and Latin America reporting the rosiest views. Furthermore, 54 percent of respondents say global conditions are better now than they were six months ago. But their outlooks on future economic conditions diverge by region (Exhibit 1). When asked about their home economies six months from now, the shares expecting improvements range from less than 40 percent in developed Asia and North America to upward of 70 percent in India.

The contributors to the development and analysis of this survey include Sven Smit, a senior partner in McKinsey’s Amsterdam office. He wishes to thank Alan FitzGerald and Vivien Singer for their contributions to this article.

More: McKinsey

0

EY Oil and gas M&A outlook positive despite deal volume at five-year low

  • Global oil and gas deal volume fell by 13% in 2017
  • Upstream deal value increased 30% year-on-year due to a strong first quarter
  • Robust M&A pipeline expected in 2018 as market sentiment improves

Global oil and gas deal volume hit a five-year low in 2017, and total global transaction value fell to US$343b from US$390b in 2016. This is according to the EY Global oil and gas transaction review 2017, which also found that while 2017 saw a 21% increase in megadeals (deals of more than US$1b), a lack of blockbuster deals (deals of more than US$50b) meant overall deal value fell. However, the 2018 outlook for mergers and acquisitions (M&A) remains optimistic, with upstream deal value increasing 30% year-on-year.

Andy Brogan, EY Global Oil & Gas Transactions Leader, says:

“Risk sensitivity and a continued focus on internal performance improvement may have delayed the uptick in deal volume we expected in 2017. But the need to demonstrate appropriate returns is now pushing companies to reposition their portfolios and seek economies of scale, which in turn we anticipate will underpin more M&A activity in 2018.”

Upstream deal value climbed to US$172b, characterized by a strong first quarter and outpacing average deal value across the rest of the year by more than 82%. North America dominated upstream activity, with deal value up 19% to US$94b in 2017. Last year also saw Europe’s best performance in more than five years at US$27b (excluding 2015’s Shell-BG deal).

Increasing activity among private equity players and the adoption of more innovative transaction structures are expected to drive upstream M&A in 2018, as joint ventures between independents become increasingly common and healthier balance sheets encourage growth the report finds.

Midstream deal volume was up 14% in 2017, but deal value contracted to US$84b – down 43% relative to 2016. And excluding blockbuster deals, total valuations continued a four-year downward trend. Meanwhile, the trend toward large North American transactions continued, accounting for nearly 90% of the top 20 deals. As commodity prices strengthen, the report anticipates a stronger midstream deal market in 2018, amid investment in North American shale basins and easing political tensions in the Middle East.

Downstream deal value declined 12% to US$59b in 2017, with the number of transactions also dropping 16% compared with 2016. This reflects less transaction activity and no movement in average deal size. However, deal values in 2017 were more than US$14b higher than the average recorded over the last five years. The US led other regions in both deal volume and value, with 43 transactions totaling US$32b.

This year is expected to see a continued focus on transactions in the downstream, as companies look to further balance portfolios across the value chain and seek growth opportunities.

Despite unreliable demand and aggressive price competition, oilfield services (OFS) operators increasingly focused on returns in 2017, yielding 215 deals – up 13% on 2016. Yet, at US$28b, deal value was down by 35% year-on-year, owing to the absence of large transformational deals. An increase in upstream capex spending and the improving oil price environment is expected to see OFS M&A activity continue to strengthen into 2018.

Brogan says: “A lack of blockbuster deals in 2017 highlights the industry’s sense of caution in the post-downturn era. But buyer and seller expectations have been narrowing and a robust pipeline of actionable M&A opportunities is now available, underpinned by an increase in the oil price, decreasing valuation gaps and improving market sentiment. We expect these trends to continue to prevail in 2018, with M&A activity flowing from portfolio optimization, increased access to capital markets and value chain integration.”

– Ends –

Notes to Editors

About EY

EY is a global leader in assurance, tax, transaction and advisory services. The insights and quality services we deliver help build trust and confidence in the capital markets and in economies the world over. We develop outstanding leaders who team to deliver on our promises to all of our stakeholders. In so doing, we play a critical role in building a better working world for our people, for our clients and for our communities.

EY refers to the global organization, and may refer to one or more, of the member firms of Ernst & Young Global Limited, each of which is a separate legal entity. Ernst & Young Global Limited, a UK company limited by guarantee, does not provide services to clients. For more information about our organization, please visit ey.com.

This news release has been issued by EYGM Limited, a member of the global EY organization that also does not provide any services to clients.

How EY’s Global Oil & Gas Sector can help your business

The oil and gas sector is constantly changing. Increasingly uncertain energy policies, geopolitical complexities, cost management and climate change all present significant challenges. EY’s Global Oil & Gas Sector supports a global network of more than 10,000 oil and gas professionals with extensive experience in providing assurance, tax, transaction and advisory services across the upstream, midstream, downstream and oil field subsectors. The sector team works to anticipate market trends, execute the mobility of our global resources and articulate points of view on relevant sector issues. With our deep sector focus, we can help your organization drive down costs and compete more effectively.

For more information, please visit ey.com/oilandgas.

About the EY Global oil and gas transactions review 2017

The EY Global oil and gas transaction review 2017 looks at significant trends in oil and gas deal activity throughout 2016 and the outlook for transactions in 2018. It considers the diverse dynamics in the upstream, downstream, midstream and oilfield services (OFS) segments, as well as the macro environment and regional trends, which can be found exclusively online. The report presents EY’s analysis of transaction data largely compiled by Derrick Petroleum Services.

For more information, please visit ey.com/oilandgas/transactions.

0

Reflections from Davos 2018

About 200 business, government, and media leaders assembled to discuss Dominic Barton’s forthcoming book, “Talent Wins: The New Playbook for Putting People First.” Joining Dom onstage were Blackrock Chairman and CEO Larry Fink; Guardian Life President and CEO Deanna Mulligan; Majid Al Futtaim CEO Alain Bejjani; and Unilever Chief HR Officer Leena Nair. Financial Times Global Business Columnist and Associate Editor Rana Foroohar moderated.

by Dominic Barton

This year’s World Economic Forum (WEF) has just concluded—it was my ninth, and last, Davos as managing partner. In a sense, Davos is a window into much of the work we do across the firm—with our clients and on the most significant issues of our time.

Six themes we heard:

  1. Growth, growth, and more growth
  2. What could go wrong?
  3. Power politics
  4. Get ready for an even more intense wave of corporate transformation
  5. The next innovation imperative will be social innovation
  6. Talent as a CEO priority

And finally, one comment from an Indian CEO that seemed to capture the overall tenor of WEF 2018: “How the mood changes. A year ago, it was doom and gloom. Now the sun is shining. Time to stop talking and start doing.”

More: https://www.mckinsey.com/about-us/new-at-mckinsey-blog/reflections-from-davos-2018