Logistyka Archive

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McKinsey Survey: Consumer sentiment on sustainability in fashion

While the fashion industry is reorganizing for the next normal after the COVID-19 crisis, European consumers have become even more engaged in sustainability topics. That presents an opportunity for the fashion industry to reiterate its commitment to sustainability. Moreover, now could be the moment to drive less seasonality in the fashion system.

Our survey was conducted in April 2020 across more than 2,000 UK and German consumers. 1 It is part of a firmwide effort to capture consumer sentiment during the COVID-19 crisis.

Sentiment toward sustainability. Amid the shock and uncertainty that the fashion sector is facing during the COVID-19 crisis, there is a silver lining for the environment: two-thirds of surveyed consumers state that it has become even more important to limit impacts on climate change. Additionally, 88 percent of respondents believe that more attention should be paid to reducing pollution. In practice, consumers have already begun changing their behaviors accordingly. Of consumers surveyed, 57 percent have made significant changes to their lifestyles to lessen their environmental impact, and more than 60 percent report going out of their way to recycle and purchase products in environmentally friendly packaging (Exhibit 1).

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Emphasis on social and environmental commitments

While the industry is reorganizing for the next normal, it should consider that consumers want fashion players to uphold their social and environmental responsibilities amid the crisis. Of surveyed consumers, 67 percent consider the use of sustainable materials to be an important purchasing factor, and 63 percent consider a brand’s promotion of sustainability in the same way. Additionally, surveyed consumers expect brands to take care of their employees, as well as workers in Asia, during the COVID-19 crisis. That highlights the need for brands to maintain ethical commitments, despite the crisis. We strive to provide individuals with disabilities equal access to our website. If you would like information about this content we will be happy to work with you. Please email us at: McKinsey_Website_Accessibility@mckinsey.com

Overall, it is imperative to build trust and transparency with consumers, as 70 percent are sticking with brands they know and trust during the crisis. Of surveyed consumers, 75 percent consider a trusted brand to be an important purchasing factor. However, younger consumers, particularly Gen Zers and millennials, are more likely to experiment with smaller or lesser-known brands during the crisis.

By Anna Granskog, Libbi Lee, Karl-Hendrik Magnus, and Corinne Sawers

More: McKinsey; About the authors: Anna Granskog is a partner in McKinsey’s Helsinki office, Libbi Lee and Corinne Sawers are associate partners in the London office, and Karl-Hendrik Magnus is a senior partner in the Frankfurt office.

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Allianz: Shipping losses at record low, but Covid-19 impact and political tensions cloud the horizon

  • Safety & Shipping Review 2020: 41 large ships lost worldwide in 2019, down by more than 20% year-on-year and almost 70% over a decade.
  • Number of shipping incidents (2,815) is up, as are claims from machinery issues. Ro-ro vessel safety is a growing concern.
  • Consequences of coronavirus and a sustained economic downturn could threaten long-term safety improvement and trigger an uptick in losses from cost-cutting measures, fatigued crew, idle vessels and weakened emergency response.
  • Rising geopolitical tensions, emissions rules and de-carbonization targets, mis-declared cargo and fire incidents continue to pose risk challenges.

Large shipping losses are at a record low having fallen by over 20% year-on-year, according to marine insurer Allianz Global Corporate & Specialty SE’s (AGCS) Safety & Shipping Review 2020. However, the coronavirus crisis could endanger the long-term safety improvements in the shipping industry for 2020 and beyond, as difficult operating conditions and a sharp economic downturn present a unique set of challenges.

“Coronavirus has struck at a difficult time for the maritime industry as it seeks to reduce its emissions, navigates issues such as climate change, political risks and piracy, and deals with ongoing problems such as fires on vessels,” says Baptiste Ossena, Global Product Leader Hull Insurance, AGCS. “Now the sector also faces the task of operating in a very different world, with the uncertain public health and economic implications of the pandemic.”

The annual AGCS study analyzes reported shipping losses over 100 gross tons (GT) and also identifies 10 challenges of the coronavirus crisis for the shipping industry which could impact safety and risk management. In 2019, 41 total losses of vessels were reported around the world, down from 53 12 months earlier. This represents an approximate 70% decline over 10 years and is a result of sustained efforts in the areas of regulation, training and technological advancement, among others. More than 950 shipping losses have been reported since the start of 2010.

Coronavirus challenges

The shipping industry has continued to operate through the pandemic, despite disruption at ports and to crew changes. While any reduction in sailings due to coronavirus restrictions could see loss activity fall in the interim, the report highlights 10 challenges that could heighten risks. Among these are: 

  • The inability to change crews is impacting the welfare of sailors, which could lead to an increase in human error on board vessels.
  • Disruption of essential maintenance and servicing heightens the risk of machinery damage, which is already one of the major causes of insurance claims.
  • Reduced or delayed statutory surveys and port inspections could lead to unsafe practices or defective equipment being undetected.
  • Cargo damage and delay are likely as supply chains come under strain.
  • The ability to respond quickly to an emergency could also be compromised with consequences for major incidents which are dependent on external support.
  • The growing number of cruise ships and oil tankers in lay-up around the world pose significant financial exposures, due to the potential threat from extreme weather, piracy or political risks. 

“Ship-owners also face additional cost pressures from a downturn in the economy and trade,” says Captain Rahul Khanna, Global Head of Marine Risk Consulting at AGCS. “We know from past downturns that crew and maintenance budgets are among the first areas that can be cut and this can impact the safe operations of vessels and machinery, potentially causing damage or breakdown, which in turn can lead to groundings or collisions. It is crucial that safety and maintenance standards are not impacted by any downturn.”

More: AGCS Marine Risk Consulting

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Port Gdańsk w czasach pandemii nie zwalania. Kontynuuje inwestycje

Port Gdańsk w czasach pandemii działa bez przerw. Terminale bez przeszkód przyjmują i obsługują statki. Nie zwalnia tempo inwestycji.

W obsłudze statków i kontrahentów uruchomiono procedury zapewniające bezpieczeństwo pracownikom terminali i klientom. W administracji przestawiono się na pracę zdalną.Po rekordowym 2019 roku, w którym w terminalach przeładowano łącznie ponad 52,15 mln t ładunków, od połowy pierwszego kwartału br. port działa pod presją zawirowań na rynku transportu morskiego spowodowanego pandemią koronawirusa.

Praca terminali oraz Zarządu Morskiego Portu Gdańsk przebiega bez zakłóceń i zachowana jest pełna zdolność operacyjna

 – podkreśla Łukasz Greinke, prezes Zarządu Morskiego Portu Gdańsk.

Łukasz Greinke - Prezes Zarzadu Morskiego Portu Gdansk S.A fot. Marek GRZYBOWSKI
Łukasz Greinke – Prezes Zarzadu Morskiego Portu Gdansk S.A fot. Marek GRZYBOWSKI

Bezpieczeństwo w porcie w dobie pandemii Covid-19 postawiono na pierwszym miejscu. W porcie wprowadzono procedury bezpieczeństwa ustalone przez Głównego Inspektora Sanitarnego oraz Dyrektora Urzędu Morskiego w Gdyni, Straż Graniczną i Państwową Straż Pożarną. Zgodne z wytycznymi wymienionych służb ostre procedury wdrożyli również operatorzy terminali i użytkownicy portu. A trzeba podkreślić, że w obrębie portu działają również stocznie w tym Grupa Remontowa, a w ścisłym sąsiedztwie terminali działa Pomorskie Centrum Logistyczne i inne podmioty. Ruch samochodowy, kolejowy w porcie generują więc liczni użytkownicy, a na akwenach portu wewnętrznego pływają jednostki z załogami wielu użytkowników nabrzeży. Chroniąc pracowników i kontrahentów przed rozprzestrzenianiem się pandemii wszystkie podmioty działające na terenie Portu Gdańskiego wprowadziło pomiar temperatury pracowników jak i gości wchodzących do obiektów i na tereny zakładów. Zarząd Portu działa świadcząc wszelkie niezbędne usługi, opierając się częściowo na pracy zdalnej.

GDANSK PORT WEJSCIE STATKU fot. Marek Grzybowski
GDAŃSK PORT WEJŚCIE STATKU fot. Marek Grzybowski

Przeładunki w Gdańsku w I kwartale br. były mniejsze niż tym samym czasie ubr. o 8,3% i w efekcie dokerzy przeładowali w terminalach łącznie prawie 11,3 mln t drobnicy, ładunków masowych i płynnych. W gdańskich terminalach obsłużono ponad 760 statków, odnotowując kilkanaście zawinięć więcej niż w I kwartale ubr.

– Ten poziom spadków jest porównywalny z poziomem spadków jakie notuje obecnie największy port europejski w Rotterdamie. Jesteśmy, jako Port Gdański, elementem globalnej gospodarki, zawijają do nas regularne linie oceaniczne, z którymi wiąże się światowa wymiana handlowa, a ona w dobie COVID-19 cierpi z uwagi na mniejszy popyt – wyjaśnia Łukasz Greinke, prezes Zarządu Morskiego Portu Gdańsk i dodaje, że .w porównaniu z rokiem ubiegłym ponad dwukrotnie wzrosły przeładunki zbóż, a o około 30% więcej przepompowano LPG. Taśmociągi i dźwigi przeładowały o prawie 6,5% więcej ładunków masowych suchych.

GDAŃSK PORT PÓŁNOCNY 2 FOT. GRZYBOWSKI
GDAŃSK PORT PÓŁNOCNY FOT. MAREK GRZYBOWSKI

W pozostałych grupach ładunkowych odnotowano spadek przeładunków paliw o około 17%, węgla (o 27,5%) oraz drobnicy, której było o 1,2% mniej niż w I kwartale ubr. Suwnice w terminalu kontenerowym przemieściły o 2% mniej kontenerów, zbliżając się do 500 tys. TEU. Pandemię odczuł poważnie ruch promowy, w efekcie czego przewozy ro-ro zmniejszyły się o około 24%. W porcie skutki pandemii dało się odczuć we wszystkich terminalach. W wyniku tego w marcu tego roku spadek podaży ładunków o 23% w stosunku do marca ubr. Terminale w Porcie Gdańsk przeładowały w tym miesiącu 34 mln t ładunków, podczas gdy w marcu ubr. było ponad 4,4 mln ton.

Firma dobrze widziana. Business Centre Club przyznał Portowi Gdańsk tytuł „Firma dobrze widziana”. To kolejny tytuł kapituły BCC za zaangażowanie społeczne Portu Gdańsk i realizowanie idei odpowiedzialności społecznej biznesu. Warto przypomnieć, że Zarząd Portu Gdańsk wspiera od lat Fundację Pomocy Społecznej na Rzecz Dzieci „Pan Władek”. Kilka lat temu została ona wyróżniona odznaką honorową „Primus in Agendo” za zasługi na rzecz polityki społecznej.

– Zarząd Morskiego Portu Gdańsk pragnie pogratulować Fundacji tego wyróżnienia. Pan Władek robi rzeczy niezwykłe. Skala pomocy, którą niesie, jest ogromna. Jesteśmy dumni z tego, że założyciel Fundacji wywodzi się z Portu Gdańsk

 – gratulował Fundacji prezes Łukasz Greinke.

W czasach pandemii Port Gdańsk aktywnie wspiera walkę z koronawirusem, kupując sprzęt dla pomorskich strażaków i szpitali. Państwowej Straży Pożarnej Zarząd Portu przekazał 10 namiotów z pełnym wyposażeniem. Włączył się również w zakup analizatorów do diagnostyki zakażeń SARS-CoV-2, w które będą wyposażone laboratoria pomorskich szpitali.

– Szpitale i personel medyczny potrzebują naszego wsparcia tu i teraz. Dlatego niesiemy pomoc tam, gdzie jest ona najbardziej potrzebna. Doceniamy ogromny trud i odwagę służby zdrowia, jaką wykazują się każdego dnia w walce z epidemią. To trudny i wymagający czas dla nas wszystkich. Jesteśmy razem w trosce o nasze zdrowie i bezpieczeństwo naszego kraju.”

 – mówił w czasie przekazania sprzętu prezes Portu Gdańsk.

GDAŃSK PORT TERM. ZBOŻOWY FOT. MAREK GRZYBOWSKI
GDAŃSK PORT TERM. ZBOŻOWY FOT. MAREK GRZYBOWSKI

Inwestycje trwają. Na terenie gdańskiego portu kontynuowane są inwestycje o łącznej wartości 3,5 mld złotych. Realizowane są przez Urząd Morski, PKP PLK i Zarząd Morskiego Portu Gdańsk. Na konferencji podsumowującej 2019 r. zapowiadano, że wnajbliższych trzech latach ZMP Gdańsk ma zamiar wydać na inwestycje blisko 1,3 mld zł. W 2019 r. przeznaczono na nie około 390 mln zł, z czego 51 mln zł pochodziło z budżetu Unii Europejskiej. W ubr. przyjęto od Doraco wyremontowane Nabrzeża Mew i Obrońców Poczty Polskiej, które wykonywane są w ramach trwającego w porcie projektu „Modernizacja toru wodnego, rozbudowa nabrzeży oraz poprawa warunków żeglugi w Porcie Wewnętrznym w Gdańsku”. Obejmuje on inwestycje o wartości ponad 110 mln euro.

– Koronawirus nie przekreśla naszych planów i nie zmienia naszego podejścia do tego jak port będzie dalej się rozwijał. Traktujemy obecną sytuację jako anomalię, z którą bardzo szybko się uporamy i dalej będziemy wykorzystywać nasze położenie geograficzne oraz budowaną obecnie infrastrukturę do zwiększania znaczenia Portu Gdańsk na mapie Europy

 – podkreśla prezes Greinke.

W 2020 r. kontynuowane są więc prace przy nabrzeżach i torach wodnych. Niedługo będą ogłaszane przetargi na modernizację infrastruktury. Dostęp od strony lądu poprawią inwestycje kolejowe. PKP Polskich Linii Kolejowych kontynuuje projekt pt. „Poprawa infrastruktury kolejowego dostępu do portu Gdańsk”. Trwa przebudowa ponad 70 km torów oraz wymiana 221 rozjazdów. Zmodernizowane będzie 13 przejazdów kolejowo–drogowych i przejść dla pieszych. Przebudowane są 3 mosty, 2 wiadukty oraz 18 przepustów. Nowy wiadukt z drogami dojazdowymi powstanie nad torami stacji gospodarGdańsk Kanał Kaszubski. Z kolei Urząd Morski w Gdyni realizuje projekt „Modernizacja toru wodnego do Portu Północnego w Gdańsku”. Jego celem jest zwiększenie szerokości toru w dnie i zwiększenie jego głębokości technicznej. Poszerzenie toru pozwoli na dwukierunkową żeglugę jednostek oraz zapewni bezpieczeństwo statkom wpływającym do i wypływającym z Portu Gdańsk. Prace kosztują 161 mln złotych, a unijne dofinansowanie wyniesie 85% kosztów projektu. Z nowego toru wodnego statki będą korzystać już latem br. Port Gdańsk radzi sobie więc z pandemią i przygotowuje się na trudne i lepsze czasy.

Tekst i zdjęcia: Marek Grzybowski

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Reimagining stores for retail’s next normal

As the COVID-19 pandemic erupted, hundreds of thousands of stores across the United States shut their doors, unsure as to when they would reopen. Retail workers have been furloughed or laid off en masse, causing widespread economic pain and deepening the devastation of an unprecedented public-health crisis.

At some point, stores will reopen and people will return to work, as evidenced in countries like China where the pandemic has passed its peak. The timing is uncertain and will differ across US markets, but what’s certain is that stores can’t simply pick up where they left off. COVID-19 has changed consumer behavior, perhaps permanently, and retail stores will need to take these new behaviors into account.

To maximize their potential when they emerge from the crisis, retailers must factor in the realities of the post-coronavirus world. In this article, we share a perspective on the trends that will affect US apparel and specialty retail stores postcrisis and the strategic imperatives that will enable them to thrive in the “next normal.”

How the crisis has changed consumer behavior

Consumers have altered their shopping and buying behavior during the pandemic. For one, loss of income and declining consumer confidence have driven decreases in discretionary spending. In an April 6–12 survey of US consumers, 67 percent of respondents said they expect to spend less on apparel in the near future than they typically do.

A potentially longer-lasting behavioral change is the accelerated adoption of e-commerce. Even before the pandemic, consumers were increasingly browsing and buying online. In the recovery period, retailers could see spikes in online shopping even in categories that in the past were primarily store-based (such as makeup). It’s also possible that e-commerce will attract consumer segments that previously preferred to shop offline, such as baby boomers and Gen Zers. Post-pandemic, apparel executives expect up to a 13 percent increase in online penetration, according to a survey we conducted in early April. Indeed, retailers in Asia—where precrisis online penetration was much higher than in the United States—are expecting a “sticky” increase in online penetration of three to six percentage points as they reopen stores.

These trends will shape the industry’s next normal and could have profound implications on a retailer’s P&L. Store sales could plummet, fiercer competition and increased operational complexity due to workforce disruptions could contribute to margin compression, and the migration of sales from stores to e-commerce (typically a lower-margin channel for retailers) could further hurt profitability. To illustrate: if online penetration increases by ten percentage points and gross margin falls by one percentage point, driven by increased pricing pressure, retailers could expect store profitability to decline by up to five percentage points (exhibit). A hit to profitability of this magnitude could push a significant number of brick-and-mortar stores into loss-making territory.

About the authors: Praveen Adhi and Andrew Davis are both partners in McKinsey’s Chicago office, where Jai Jayakumar is a consultant; Sarah Touse is an associate partner in the Atlanta office. The authors wish to thank Colleen Baum and Althea Peng for their contributions to this article.

More: https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/retail/

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COVID-19: Win the Fight, Win the Future

The unfolding, global COVID-19 pandemic is a human crisis of historic scale and complexity. It is straining health care systems, government fiscal capacity, and the ability of many organizations to cope with the changes wrought by the virus and the response to it. The level of uncertainty for most leaders is unprecedented, and most of our frameworks for planning and problem solving are unable to manage the geographic variability, uncertainty, and the exponential change brought by the COVID-19 crisis.

In our work to confront this challenge with public and private sector clients worldwide, we have found that many leaders are asking the same set of questions: How should I forecast my revenues? How should I adjust my budget? When will this be over, and when will we return to “normal”? These are good questions, but the reality is, we shouldn’t be asking them at this point. In the wake of so much uncertainty, we should instead focus on framing potential scenarios and use them to develop a robust plan of action.

Three months into the COVID-19 crisis, we are starting to see patterns in its impact on countries and cities, as well as in these areas’ responses. We see three distinct phases. First, there is the “Flatten” phase, in which countries or cities lock down to flatten the virus’s exponential growth curve. Second comes the “Fight” phase, during which a geography “Restarts” its economy while maintaining a low rate of infection, while still running the risk of having to implement further lockdowns. Finally, we are anticipating a “Future” phase, which begins only after a vaccine or highly effective treatment has been developed and deployed.

We have applied this framework on a localized and sector basis and have created different scenarios for each phase to account for the shifting dynamics and complex elements that are part of the COVID-19 landscape.

Three critical insights have emerged from our scenario work:

  • Get ready to Restart. The transition from Flatten to Fight, or what we refer to as a “Restart,” is an intentional policy decision that is made when a set of necessary pre-conditions are met in a given geography. Business leaders cannot control that decision or timing, but they can make sure they are ready to Restart.
  • The Fight will be protracted. The Fight phase is going to be longer than most leaders we have talked to anticipate. We expect that it will be between 12 to 36 months before a vaccine or highly effective treatment can be developed and deployed.
  • The Fight will be expensive. The Fight phase will be more economically challenging than most leaders seem to expect. Because the situation is volatile, consumer and worker confidence has been shaken, and because of the risk of further outbreaks and localized lockdowns, or perhaps even national ones, we envision an ongoing impact to the global economy. Our US-focused scenarios show a potential range of a relatively severe 5% to 20% impact on microeconomic outcomes such as revenues or employment, before accounting for policy interventions and responses, which will strongly influence the end result. 

Part of the strategic challenge is that the effects of COVID-19 will vary significantly by geography and sector. Individual companies will see even greater variation amongst their outcomes during each of the Flatten, Fight, and Future phases. Such variation has been observed in every prior economic crisis, and the uncertainty and multi-phase nature of this crisis may lead to greater disparity than usual, creating even more winners and losers than is typical. Accordingly, we think it is imperative for business leaders to use scenarios with a range of outcomes to develop a plan for their companies to: a) Be ready to Restart; b) Win the Fight; and c) Win the Future. Particularly, we think that winning the Fight phase is crucial because it creates the opportunity to win the Future.

To help companies and societies respond to COVID-19, and recover from it, we offer an approach for framing and developing scenarios, and suggest what they can expect in trying to accomplish these goals.

The Complexity of COVID-19 Demands Systematic Scenario Planning

We cannot predict the future. But we can seek to understand what the future might hold, and what that means for nations, industry sectors, and individual companies. We need scenarios to bound the uncertainty, to help us understand the underlying drivers of outcomes, and for some understanding of how we can shape those outcomes.

The data clearly suggests that very different COVID-19 trajectories have played out around the world. (See Exhibit 1.)

AUTHORS: Marin Gjaja , Lars Fæste , Gerry Hansell , and Doug Hohner

MORE: https://www.bcg.com/en-us/publications/2020