Artykuły Archive

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The Power of Algorithmic Forecasting

This is the first in a series of articles by Boston Consulting Group and Daimler Mobility discussing the concept of forward-looking financial steering. Here, we introduce the concept and explain how companies can use it. Subsequent articles will address implementation challenges related to people and technology. The insights are derived from Daimler Mobility’s successful deployment, with BCG’s support, of forward-looking steering in its global operations.

People don’t steer their cars solely on the basis of what they see in the rearview mirror, yet that is essentially how most business leaders steer their companies: they look backward to decide how to move forward. This method makes it hard for companies to cope with the ever-increasing levels of uncertainty in today’s business environment. To keep up to speed, companies need an approach to financial steering that permits rapid and effective course corrections in anticipation of future developments. Companies should spend far less time developing detailed plans and far more time taking action to counter threats and capture opportunities.

To make that happen, the paradigm for steering must fully shift its focus from backward looking to forward looking. Backward-­looking steering entails analyzing deviations between plan targets and actual performance. Forward-­looking steering entails comparing targets with forecasts of how KPIs will evolve over specific time horizons. To truly adopt forward-looking steering (as described in this article), a company must use algorithmically derived forecasts.

Although it is common for companies to produce forecasts manually, few companies use algorithms. Algorithmically derived forecasts allow the focus to shift from periodically reporting results to accurately forecasting the development of KPIs—faster and with less effort. Armed with foresight into how conditions will change, companies can take action to preempt unfavorable outcomes and promote competitive advantage.

Adopting algorithm-based, forward-looking steering is not easy, however. A company must enrich its traditional manual processes with a data-driven, automated approach to generating forecasts and performance reports. Among the many challenges are assembling a team that has statistical capabilities, setting up a new technical infrastructure, and building people’s trust in technology.

“To master the digital transformation, a company must take a comprehensive approach to algorithm-based forward-looking steering,” says Stephan Unger, Daimler Mobility’s Chief Financial Officer (CFO). “This includes not only advanced analytical methods, new technologies, and the right expertise, but also an engaging approach to change management.”

By Gerhard Unger and Marc Rodt

More: https://www.bcg.com/publications/

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When women lead, workplaces should listen

For years, female executives have come away from women-only leadership programs empowered to do—and ask for—more, valuing the opportunity to examine their strengths and shortcomings in the psychological safety of their peers and to use the experience as a springboard for personal development.

But organizations are leaving unexamined the most powerful lessons these programs offer.

The oft-overlooked benefit of women-only leadership programs is that they hold up a mirror to the organization. When women scrutinize their own leadership traits and experiences, they reveal important information about the day-to-day environment in which they operate. If a company is receptive, the content of the sessions can help gauge how well the organization promotes effective leadership behavior and can offer a portal into where the company succeeds, as well as where it fails to foster an environment in which everyone can bring their best self to work. In short, companies can use such programs not only to improve the skills of the participants but also to assess—and ultimately improve—the workplace itself.

We’ve come to these conclusions through a decade’s worth of experience in a particular women’s leadership program—McKinsey’s Remarkable Women Program, which has helped develop female leaders from Warsaw to Washington, DC, to Singapore to Stockholm. Remarkable Women sessions generally include participants from multiple organizations, but many companies send more than one woman, and we believe that the lessons we’ve learned are equally relevant for organizations running their own in-house programs.

In this article, we describe what hundreds of program sessions and 150 interviews with participants have taught us. Not only do women and men experience work differently; not only is it the system—rather than women—that needs fixing; but there are three critical actions organizations need to take: they must broaden their leadership models, stimulate dissent, and encourage more effective introspection across the board.

About the authors: Natacha Catalino is an associate partner in McKinsey’s Boston office, and Kirstan Marnane is a senior advisor in the London office.

More: https://www.mckinsey.com

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Transport Morski 2019 – raport UNCTAD

Handel morski przez najbliższe 5 lat będzie rósł corocznie średnio o 3,4%

 Marek Grzybowski

Światowy handel morski w 2018 r., rozwijał się wolniej niż w poprzednich latach, a mimo to przewozy oceaniczne osiągnęły wielkość 11 mld t. Handel drogą morską przez najbliższe 5 lat będzie rósł corocznie średnio o 3,4% – prognozuje UNCTAD w najnowszym raporcie rocznym Review of Maritime Transport 2019 opublikowanym 30 października br.

W efekcie spowolnienia rozwoju wiodących rynków gospodarki światowej zmniejszyła się również aktywność działalności handlowej. W efekcie międzynarodowy handel morski w 2018 r. utracił dynamikę praktycznie we wszystkich wiodących branżach. Podaż ładunków w wymiarze globalnym wzrosła o 2,7% w 2018 r. To znacznie niżej w porównaniu z 4,1% przyrostem w 2017 r. Spowolnienie aktywności gospodarczej na wiodących rynkach wpłynęło negatywnie na prawie wszystkie segmenty transportu morskiego. Miało również istotny wpływ na działalność przeładunkową portów. W 2018 r. przeładunki kontenerów spowolniły do 4,7%, w porównaniu z 6,7% w 2017 roku – obliczyli eksperci UNCTAD.

Gdańsk i Gdynia. Jak wynika z informacji zarządów portów Gdańsk i Gdynia, porty Zatoki Gdańskiej nie odczuły spowolnienia w globalnej podaży kontenerów. DCT Gdańsk odnotował w 2018 r. rekordowy przyrost pojemników przekraczający 21% i obroty zbliżając się 1,95 mln TEU. W Gdyni również przyrosty były znacznie, bo 3-krotnie większe niż w portach kontenerowych świata. W Baltic Container Terminal przekroczyły 13,3% (411,7 tys. TEU), a w Hatchison Ports Gdynia podaż kontenerów wzrosła o 13,4% do 391,3 tys. TEU. To niestety efekt wywołany przez wzrost popytu konsumpcyjnego w Polsce. A więc wzrost podaży kontenerów w Polskich portach, to informacja o rosnącym zadłużeniu Polski i uzależnienie gospodarki od dostawców zagranicznych. Bo, jak mówią, porty to zwierciadło gospodarki.

Globalne zakłócenia. Spadek wzrostu handlu morskiego jest wynikiem kilku negatywnych trendów, w tym osłabienia wielostronnego systemu handlowego i rosnącego protekcjonizmu – twierdzi Mukhisa Kituyi, sekretarz generalny UNCTAD, alarmując: jest to ostrzeżenie, że polityki państw mogą mieć negatywny wpływ na handel morski i aspiracje rozwojowe innych krajów.

Więcej: http://www.pgt.pl/transport-morski-2019-raport-unctad

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Promy z polskich stoczni

Silny polski promowy klaster morski może dać nam przewagę nad konkurentami

 Marek Grzybowski

Polskie stocznie budują nowoczesne ekologiczne promy. Niestety, nie dla polskich i skandynawskich armatorów. Pierwszy prom na świecie na metanol, promy z siłowniami na gaz, pierwszy prom elektryczny – to wszystko statki z polskich stoczni, nagradzane w międzynarodowych konkursach.

W budowie kompletnych promów i częściowo wyposażonych kadłubów oraz przebudowie promów na jednostki bardziej przyjazne środowisko specjalizują się stocznie Grupy Remontowa oraz Aluship z Gdańska, Crist i Nauta z Gdyni, a także niektóre zakłady w Szczecinie.

Promy dla Kanady. Na początku listopada handlowcy z Remontowa Shipbuilding podpisali kontrakt na budowę nowego kompletnego promu typu Salish. To kontynuacja serii już wcześniej budowanych w Remontowej 3 promów dla kanadyjskiego armatora BC Ferries, który operuje w prowincji British Columbia. Statek ma być przekazany armatorowi do eksploatacji w 2022 r. Nowy prom będzie wprowadzony na obsługę połączenia Swartz Bay-Southern Gulf Islands. Zastąpi prom Mayne Queen.

BC Ferries operuje już 3 promami przekazanymi do eksploatacji przez Remontową Shipbuilding w latach 2016-2017: Salish Orca – w listopadzie 2016 r., Salish Raven – w czerwcu 2017 r., a Salish Eagle – w lutym 2017 r. Grupa Remontowa uzyskała zlecenie na budowę serii promów typu Salish wygrywając przetarg, do którego stanęły również stocznie z Kanady, Norwegii, Niemiec i Turcji. To, że BC Ferries wybrało budowę jednostek w polskiej stoczni, a nie w kanadyjskiej, było przedmiotem ostrej krytyki prasy kanadyjskiej i niektórych polityków.

Więcej: http://www.pgt.pl/promy-z-polskich-stoczni

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Cybersecurity: Linchpin of the digital enterprise

Two consistent and related themes in enterprise technology have emerged in recent years, both involving rapid and dramatic change. One is the rise of the digital enterprise across sectors and internationally. The second is the need for IT to react quickly and develop innovations aggressively to meet the enterprise’s digital aspirations. Exhibit 1 presents a “digitization index”—the results of research on the progress of enterprise digitization within companies, encompassing sectors, assets, and operations.

As IT organizations seek to digitize, however, many face significant cybersecurity challenges. At company after company, fundamental tensions arise between the business’s need to digitize and the cybersecurity team’s responsibility to protect the organization, its employees, and its customers within existing cyber operating models and practices.

If cybersecurity teams are to avoid becoming barriers to digitization and instead become its enablers, they must transform their capabilities along three dimensions. They must improve risk management, applying quantitative risk analytics. They must build cybersecurity directly into businesses’ value chains. And they must support the next generation of enterprise-technology platforms, which include innovations like agile development, robotics, and cloud-based operating models.

Cybersecurity’s role in digitization

Every aspect of the digital enterprise has important cybersecurity implications. Here are just a few examples. As companies seek to create more digital customer experiences, they need to determine how to align their teams that manage fraud prevention, security, and product development so they can design controls, such as authentication, and create experiences that are both convenient and secure. As companies adopt massive data analytics, they must determine how to identify risks created by data sets that integrate many types of incredibly sensitive customer information. They must also incorporate security controls into analytics solutions that may not use a formal software-development methodology. As companies apply robotic process automation (RPA), they must manage bot credentials effectively and make sure that “boundary cases”—cases with unexpected or unusual factors, or inputs that are outside normal limits—do not introduce security risks.

About the author(s)

James Kaplan is a partner in McKinsey’s New York office, Wolf Richter is a partner in the Berlin office, and David Ware is an associate partner in the Washington, DC, office.

More: www.mckinsey.com