Raport z Rynku Archive

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Oil and Product Logistics in 2022 – Radical Changes in Routes, Ports and Freight

By Marek Grzybowski

The year 2022 brought radical changes to the transport routes of crude oil and products. After Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, importers experienced a record increase in freight rates for operators of oil tankers and its products. The local war changed the macroeconomic picture of the world economy.

 

Last year marked a new era in the global logistics of crude oil and petroleum products. December 5 last year With the extension of the European Union’s sanctions package and the entry into force of the EU ban on trade in Russian oil, a new era of oil at sea and on land has begun.

– The year ends with critical macroeconomic challenges regarding the future of VLCC and crude oil freight rates. There is uncertainty about the evolution of the oil supply given the current increase in oil demand and the impact on trade flows, as Europe continued to rely on Russian oil imports until the end of the third quarter, says Sue Terpilowski of SeaNews, using data compiled by Signal Ocean.

In 11 months of 2022 [excluding December], the global supply of crude oil in sea transport increased by 8.6% y/y to 1,866.8 million tonnes, excluding cabotage transport, Refinitiv experts calculated. This means higher demand than in the period January-November 2021 (1,718.3 million tonnes), but it was slightly lower than in the same period of 2019, when it amounted to 1,926.9 million tonnes.

As the geography of crude oil and petroleum product imports changes, fuel terminals in Polish ports play a greater role. We still imported 51% of crude oil from Russia to Poland (January-October 2022). Crude oil from outside this market also reached Poland by sea. The main suppliers were: Saudi Arabia (28%), Norway (8%), Great Great Britain (5%), USA (4%), Kazakhstan (3%), Guyana (1%), Nigeria (1%) – Forum Energii experts calculated.

More: Oil and Product Logistics in 2022

 

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BCG – When Innovation Has No Borders, Culture Is Key

By Johann D. HarnossAnna SchwarzFrançois CandelonMartin ReevesAshley GriceRyoji Kimura, and Nikolaus Lang

Where do new ideas come from? Innovations that propel our societies forward often come from people who look at the familiar with fresh eyes, connecting and combining what’s previously been separate. For such innovators, crossing boundaries—not only mental boundaries, but sometimes actual physical borders—is the key to imagining new possibilities.

Talented, creative people can be found in every part of the world. Bringing together that diversity of talent enables companies and countries to see things in a new way and, our research shows, ignites the much-needed innovative spark that drives sustainable growth.

A Moral Cause with a Business Case

Reducing the obstacles to global migration, and building bridges to opportunity for talented people regardless of where they were born or what their circumstances might be, is a moral cause that also has a strong business case. The war in Ukraine, along with ongoing conflicts in Afghanistan, Syria, and elsewhere, reminds us that not all migration is voluntary—which only makes the moral cause that much more urgent.

In this “Innovation Without Borders” report, we lay out a pragmatic way forward for business executives who intend to drive creativity and innovation through global diversity. The report is based on a first-of-its-kind survey of executives in 20 industries and 10 countries, the personal beliefs that guide them, and the operational tactics they use. The report also includes the in-depth perspectives of four executives who have seen how rewarding the journey to global diversity can be for an organization—and the struggles that can occur along the way. Here are a few of their insights:

From Aspiration to Action

Our survey found that, while 95% of executives plan to embrace globally diverse teams, only 5% have fully scaled such teams across their organizations. This gap between ambition and execution is mostly a result of one thing: culture. Senior executives, especially in large, established firms, told us they worry about the significant cultural change a globally diverse workforce brings with it. Leaders of large companies who express a strong intent to pursue global diversity (and many who already are) also voice a healthy skepticism that they can get thousands of employees to follow them without ruffling some feathers.

Four Clusters of Maturity

We found that the firms in our survey fall into four distinct clusters of global diversity: companies we refer to as question marks, companies that see diversity as a tool, those who see diversity as a celebration, and those for whom diversity is a part of their DNA. Identifying the cluster a company occupies is a prerequisite for ambitious executive teams to drive action.

Managing Three Moments of Culture Shock

The four clusters above serve as beacons in the journey to global diversity, with higher creativity, growth, and innovation output the ultimate rewards. Each step on this journey offers benefits from a value creation perspective: firms that start as question marks can significantly increase their chances of becoming world class innovators by taking one or two steps in the journey to global diversity.

More: The BCG Henderson Institute is Boston Consulting Group’s strategy think tank, dedicated to exploring and developing valuable new insights from business, technology, and science by embracing the powerful technology of ideas. The Institute engages leaders in provocative discussion and experimentation to expand the boundaries of business theory and practice and to translate innovative ideas from within and beyond business. For more ideas and inspiration from the Institute, please visit our Latest Thinking page and follow us on LinkedIn and Twitter.

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Sea transport in economic storms. UNCTAD 2022 Report

 

Higher grain prices and dry bulk freight rates in early 2022 will contribute to a 1.2 percent increase in consumer food prices. Container ships berthed 13.7% longer in 2021 compared to 2020, exacerbating delays and shortages of goods. Over the past year, the total greenhouse gas emissions from the global fleet have increased by 4.7% – these are the findings of UNCTAD exports included in the latest report “Maritime Transport Review 2022”.

“In short, we need to tackle the many sources of inefficiencies at ports and in land transport networks. This review also calls for better implementation of transport and trade facilitation solutions at ports and borders. At UNCTAD, we work very closely on facilitation through different programs on ports and customs like ASYCUDA and the ports management program. These are our largest technical assistance projects going to really dozens of countries around the world. This report also calls for a faster transition to smart and green logistics systems and to the widespread use of electronic documents in international trade. All of these are solutions to reduce logistic costs, which in turn translate into lower prices for the world” – said Rebeca Grynspan, Secretary-General of UNCTAD in the Statement during the Presentation of the “Review of Maritime Transport 2022” in Geneva.

More: Grzybowski: Transport morski. Raport UCTAD 2022

Presentation of the Review of Maritime Transport 2022

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The specter of hunger is haunting the world

Global trade is expected to hit a record $32 trillion in 2022, but the outlook for 2023 is getting bleak. As food becomes more expensive, developing countries are finding it increasingly difficult to keep millions of people from starving, UNCTAD experts have warned.

Global trade in goods and services will approach $32 trillion in 2022. However, the slowdown that began in the second half of the year is expected to deepen in 2023.
The main causes of UNCTAD include geopolitical tensions and difficult financial conditions of the poorest countries. The latest analysis of global economic exchange is included in the December, updated Global Trade Update report.

Expensive dollar – 350 million starving. Food insecurity has tripled the population at risk of famine in the last three years. The number of people starving before the COVID-19 pandemic was estimated at 135 million. UNCTAD analysts alarm that today it is almost 350 million – according to FAO and the United Nations World Food Programme.

Gold wheat. The average price of wheat was 89% higher than in 2020. Over the same period, the average exchange rate of the US dollar against the national currencies of these countries increased between 10% and 46% – in October 2022.
The report shows that a stronger US dollar has an impact on the final price. Adjusted for the exchange rate, the estimated increase in wheat prices ranged from 89% to 106% to 176% depending on the country.

1 billion hungry people. Current information about the turbulence caused by the intensification of the Covid-19 pandemic in China, the activation of Russia’s aggressive actions in Ukraine, the economic slowdown in highly developed countries, the intensification of the combination of infections in Europe and weather anomalies in the United States may make not all of UNCTAD’s postulates feasible. fulfillment.
The war in Ukraine and the turmoil in global logistics chains benefit exporters of energy raw materials, cereals and food. It seems that the number of hungry people will continue to grow to 1 billion people. The situation will change only under the influence of global economic recovery and the construction of a stable energy and food security system.

More: Hunger spec

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Pacific shipping aground. US orders in China fell by 40%

Cancellations of ocean services in the Pacific, changes in schedules in ocean services, consolidation of cargo by ocean operators are visible in December. And stormy times await US importers in January 2023. It is already known that US orders in China fell by 40%. Chinese factories are closing two weeks earlier than usual for the Chinese New Year. An increase in the supply of bulk goods, LNG, general cargo and in containers is recorded in Polish ports.

Collapse of demand for sea transport between the USA and China as a result of the economic slowdown in the United States and the policy of deglobalization and relocation of production to North America. It’s a “very bad time for the shipping industry,” said one manager at an Asian logistics company.

U.S. logistics managers are bracing for delays in shipments from China in early January due to canceled container ship sailings and export rollovers by ocean carriers, CNBC has warned, citing information from U.S. logistics operators.

Poland

Polish exports grew dynamically in the 8 months of this year. In the period from January to August this year, In 2018, Polish exports amounted to EUR 221.2 billion, the Central Statistical Office (GUS) reported. This is an increase of 19.9% respectively. in export.

The turnover with countries outside the EU is decisive for the maritime turnover of our ports. Poland’s export value was EUR 25.7 billion, which was 22.8% higher than in the previous year.

During the first 8 months of this year, we exported to Great Britain for EUR 11.0 billion (increase by 20.5%), and to the USA for EUR 6.6 billion (increase by 36.3%). The activity of our terminals in large ports is also influenced by imports from highly developed countries outside the EU. It reached EUR 23.2 billion, an increase of 49.7%.

Imports from the USA (EUR 9.5 billion, increase by 79.2%) and South Korea (EUR 5.2 billion, increase by 23.2%) were decisive here.

Imports from China were significant (EUR 34.2 billion, an increase of 33.6%).

Therefore, the Polish economy reacts to global market changes less dramatically than the US, which has a positive impact on the turnover in Polish ports of fundamental importance for the economy. This means that the ports will have good results not only in terms of transshipments, but also in revenues from the sale of services. Already in January we will find out how much better these results will be than last year.

More: US orders in China fell by 40%