Makroekonomia Archive

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Machines increasingly complement human labor in the workplace

Automation and artificial intelligence (AI) are transforming businesses and will contribute to economic growth via contributions to productivity. They will also help address “moonshot” societal challenges in areas from health to climate change.

At the same time, these technologies will transform the nature of work and the workplace itself. Machines will be able to carry out more of the tasks done by humans, complement the work that humans do, and even perform some tasks that go beyond what humans can do. As a result, some occupations will decline, others will grow, and many more will change.

While we believe there will be enough work to go around (barring extreme scenarios), society will need to grapple with significant workforce transitions and dislocation. Workers will need to acquire new skills and adapt to the increasingly capable machines alongside them in the workplace. They may have to move from declining occupations to growing and, in some cases, new occupations.

This executive briefing, which draws on the latest research from the McKinsey Global Institute, examines both the promise and the challenge of automation and AI in the workplace and outlines some of the critical issues that policy makers, companies, and individuals will need to solve for.

  1. Accelerating progress in AI and automation is creating opportunities for businesses, the economy, and society
  2. How AI and automation will affect work
  3. Key workforce transitions and challenges
  4. Ten things to solve for

More: McKinsey Global Institute

Authors: James Manyika is chairman and director of the McKinsey Global Institute and a senior partner at McKinsey & Company based in San Francisco. Kevin Sneader is McKinsey’s global managing partner-elect, based in Hong Kong.

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How IoT Data Ecosystems Will Transform B2B Competition

Former Cisco CEO John Chambers got it mostly right when he said that every company today is a technology company. In fact, every company is becoming a technology and data company, and the consequences of this distinction are substantial.
The real value of the Internet of Things (IoT) lies in the data it serves up and the insights that result. Much has been written about how IoT is unlocking significant value for companies by enabling smart factories and connected supply chains as well as the ability to monitor products and deliver new services. But IoT isn’t just changing how companies operate; it’s changing the very nature of their businesses. In asset-heavy industries, the proliferation of IoT data is fundamentally shifting the customer value proposition from goods to services, and this shift is leading companies to adopt new business models that require new capabilities.
The majority of IoT solutions today are built around internal applications such as predictive maintenance, factory optimization, supply chain automation, and improved product design. But to fully capture the value of their IoT data, B2B companies need to think beyond their own walls. By collaborating with new business partners, including industry incumbents and players in other sectors, companies can form new data ecosystems. These ecosystems give their participants access to valuable collective data assets as well as the capabilities and domain expertise necessary to develop the assets into new data-driven products and services.
Data ecosystems will play a critical role in defining the future of competition in many B2B industries. They enable companies to build data businesses, which are valuable not only because they generate high-margin recurring revenue streams but also because they create competitive advantage. New data-driven products and services deliver unique value propositions that extend beyond a company’s traditional hardware products, deepening customer relationships and raising barriers to entry. They also build highly defensible positions, thanks to natural monopolies rooted in economies of scale and scope (similar to monopolies based on proprietary IP or trade secrets). Companies that secure advantaged positions in data ecosystems will generate significant value and competitive advantage across their entire business, including their traditional hardware offerings.

Digital ecosystems—networks of companies, consumers, customers, and others that interact to create mutual value—have enabled some of the most profitable and valuable business models that exist today. (See “Getting Physical: The Rise of Hybrid Ecosystems,” BCG article, September 2017, and “The Age of Digital Ecosystems: Thriving in a World of Big Data,” BCG article, July 2013.) In fact, the five most valuable public companies in the US (at the time of publishing)—Apple, Google, Microsoft, Facebook, and Amazon—are all orchestrators of digital ecosystems. These digital leaders have built platform-based business models that capitalize on the winner-take-all dynamic of ecosystem competition to reach enormous scale and establish dominant positions.

These orchestrators exploit three factors:

  • They scale up rapidly, capitalizing on virtually zero marginal production costs, network effects, and low barriers to geographical expansion (in the absence of protectionism).
  • They take advantage of the “data flywheel effect”; digital ecosystems enable unprecedented data accumulation and analysis, fueling improvements to products and business processes and stimulating further growth and data access.
  • And ecosystems are able to provide seamless and comprehensive digital experiences for customers by organizing business partners on a single platform to satisfy multiple customer needs. They thereby lock in customers and capture a greater portion of their attention, time, and value.

More:

https://www.bcg.com/publications/2018

By Massimo Russo and Michael Albert

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Global foreign direct investment (FDI) flows fell by 23 per cent to $1.43 trillion.

This is  in stark contrast to the accelerated growth in GDP and trade. The fall was caused in part by a 22 per cent decrease in the value of cross-border mergers and acquisitions  (M&As). But even discounting the large one-off deals and corporate restructurings
that inflated FDI numbers in 2016, the 2017 decline remained significant. The value of announced greenfield investment – an indicator of future trends – also decreased by 14 per cent.
FDI flows to developing economies remained stable at $671 billion, seeing no recovery following the 10 per cent drop in 2016.
• FDI flows to Africa continued to slide, reaching $42 billion, down 21 per cent from 2016. The decline was concentrated in the larger commodity exporters.
• Flows to developing Asia remained stable, at $476 billion. The region regained its position as the largest FDI recipient in the world.
• FDI to Latin America and the Caribbean rose 8 per cent to reach $151 billion, lifted by that region’s economic recovery. This was the first rise in six years, but inflows remain well below the 2011 peak during the commodities boom.
• FDI in structurally weak and vulnerable economies remained fragile. Flows to the least developed countries fell by 17 per cent, to $26 billion. Those to landlocked developing countries increased moderately, by 3 per cent, to $23 billion. Small island developing States saw their inflows increase by 4 per cent, to $4.1 billion. Inward FDI flows to developed economies fell sharply, by 37 per cent, to $712 billion. Cross-border M&As registered a 29 per cent decrease, with fewer of the megadeals and corporate restructurings that shaped global investment patterns in
2016. The strong decrease in inflows was in large part the effect of a return to prior levels in the United Kingdom and the United States, after spikes in 2016.
FDI flows to transition economies declined by 27 per cent, to $47 billion, the second lowest level since 2005. The decline reflects geopolitical uncertainties and sluggish investment in natural resources. Projections for global FDI in 2018 show fragile growth. Global flows are forecast to increase marginally, by up to 10 per cent, but remain well below the average over the past 10 years. Higher economic growth projections, trade volumes and
commodity prices would normally point to a larger potential increase in global FDI in 2018. However, risks are significant, and policy uncertainty abounds. Escalation and broadening of trade tensions could negatively affect investment in global value chains (GVCs). In addition, tax reforms in the United States and greater tax competition are likely to significantly affect global investment patterns.

More in: http://unctad.org/en

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BCG’s 2018 Sustainable Economic Development Assessment

 

But are those two goals actually in conflict? Do efforts to improve well-being take a toll on economic growth or, to the contrary, promote it?

We have found that there is no need to choose between well-being and growth. BCG’s 2018 Sustainable Economic Development Assessment (SEDA) reveals that countries can make the overall welfare of citizens the top priority while promoting sustainable and robust economic growth. SEDA, a tool that we launched in 2012, is designed to provide insight into the relative well-being of a country’s citizens and how effectively a country converts wealth, as measured by income levels, into well-being. (See “Defining and Measuring Well-Being.”)

In the 2018 analysis, which included 152 countries and used data from 2007 through 2016, we found that countries that were better at converting wealth into well-being tended to have faster economic growth. They also tended to be more resilient—recovering more quickly from the 2008–2009 financial crisis.

Pursuing the twin objectives of growth and well-being should be the aim of long-term development strategies. This doesn’t happen on its own, though—it is the result of thoughtful policy decisions that strike the right balance. This balanced approach is relevant not just under normal circumstances but also during times of crisis. At such times, countries must resist the temptation to prioritize stimulating economic growth or reducing fiscal deficits at the expense of well-being.

This year’s analysis reveals how well-being has evolved in the years since the financial crisis. (Explore our findings in “SEDA: An Interactive Guide.”) In addition to assessing which countries have gained or lost ground relative to others, the analysis found that on an absolute basis well-being around the world has, in general, improved in the past decade. (See Well-Being Trends over the Past Decade.)

Our analysis also provides guidance on which areas—what we call dimensions—deserve particular attention as countries aim to foster the virtuous cycle between economic growth and well-being:

  • For countries that already enjoy a relatively high level of well-being, investments in  education and employment can do the most to improve both well-being and economic growth.
  • For countries with a relatively low level of well-being, it is not enough to focus only on areas that are key pillars of development, such as health and education. They must also improve governance, a critical foundation for sustainable economic growth, and infrastructure.
  • Within infrastructure, digital connectivity has pervasive effects on all dimensions of well-being. It should be front and center for policymakers—particularly in countries with relatively low levels of connectivity.

Countries can—and should—aim to achieve the twin objectives of sustainable economic growth and improved well-being. SEDA can be a valuable tool as governments undertake this journey, shedding light on the impact of past policy decisions and informing strategies for the future.

The Role of Well-Being in the Economy

Sustainable development is every country’s goal, and improving the well-being of citizens is central to that pursuit. A country’s wealth is a major factor in determining its well-being. However, as the design of SEDA scores reflects, creating well-being requires a multidimensional approach, one that goes beyond efforts to increase wealth.

The ability to convert wealth into well-being varies widely among countries, reflecting different societal choices, policy decisions, and capacity to execute them. However, as this report makes clear, good performance offers a double reward: countries that outperform their peers in converting wealth into well-being also tend to grow faster. This finding is consistent with recent research showing that inclusive societies tend to grow in a more sustained way over the long term.

What should countries do? It depend on their situation. There are no silver bullets or standard blueprints. What we do know, however, is that the lack of progress in specific dimensions can hamper overall gains in well-being. Further, the dimensions with the best potential to boost well-being change with each new stage in a country’s development.

Over the past six years, SEDA has been an important tool for governments and international organizations as they review strategic priorities. It has been used to assess a country’s strengths and weaknesses, identify barriers to development, and set priorities and a national strategy for sustainable growth. It has also been a valuable mechanism for tracking the progress and managing the implementation of those strategies.

Focusing on the key success factors for converting wealth into well-being is not just a nice-to-have. Countries that fail to prioritize them will squander valuable opportunities for sustained progress in economic development—and find themselves gradually left behind by peers.

Authors: Joao Hrotkó; Enrique Rueda-Sabater; Vincent Chin; Nikolaus Lang

More: SEDA,

 

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ConsumerLab Report Ericsson – 10 Hot Consumer Trends 2018

Imagine you have just arrived home from work. You wave your hand, and the lamp turns on, flashing the light in greeting. The home speaker begins to play music, but when you give it an exasperated look, it turns off. You make a coffee, but grimace because it’s too bitter. The coffee machine immediately offers to add sugar or milk.

Two things are conspicuously absent from this vision of a not-too-distant future. One is an appliance with switches and knobs, and the other is a smartphone full of remote control apps. Our research indicates that consumers are increasingly moving towards a paradigmatic shift in how they expect to interact with technology. Ever more things are becoming connected, but the complexities of how to control them all are a different matter.

On the one hand, alternative yet equally good user interface solutions for simple functions have existed for much longer than we’ve had electronic gadgets. A Westerner who experiences an Asian meal for the first time soon finds out that the user interface to that meal is a pair of chopsticks rather than a knife and fork. On the other hand, mass-market acceptance of digital technology has made the proliferation of user interfaces practically infinite. Every new device with a screen adds new user interface variations, which are then multiplied by the number of apps within each gadget.

Today you have to know all the devices. But tomorrow all the devices will have to know you. If consumers continue to be faced with the prospect of learning and relearning how to use devices in the face of an ever-increasing pace of technological change, they will become increasingly reluctant to buy in to the future. We might already be close to that breaking point. The current generation of “flat” user interfaces do not use 3D effects or embellishments to make clickable interface elements, such as buttons, stand out. It is difficult for users to know where to click. As a result, they navigate web pages 22 percent slower.1 For this reason, our trends for 2018 and beyond focus on various aspects of more direct interaction between consumers and technology.

With 5G, connectivity is set to become ubiquitous. This might sound simple, but it involves a huge technology upgrade; devices must be able to relay complex human interaction data to cloud-based processing, and respond intuitively within milliseconds. The Internet of Things (IoT) must provide interoperability between all devices, and allow for mobility. Network availability also needs to be maintained, so that devices do not suddenly go offline and lose their human-like capabilities.

More: www.ericsson.com