Makroekonomia Archive

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Seven key trends shaping maritime transport

UNCTAD’s Review of Maritime Transport 2018 identifies seven key trends that are currently redefining the maritime transport landscape and shaping the sector’s outlook. These trends, presented in no particular order, entail challenges and opportunities which require continued monitoring and assessment for effective and sound policymaking.

1) Protectionism
On the demand side, the uncertainty arising from wide-ranging geopolitical, economic, and trade policy risks as well as some structural shifts, constitutes a drag on maritime trade. An immediate concern are the inward-looking policies and rising protectionist sentiment that could undermine global economic growth, restrict flows and shift trade patterns.

2) Digitalization, e-commerce and the implementation of the Belt and Road Initiative
The unfolding effects of technological advances and China’s ambitious reordering of global trade infrastructure will entail important implications for shipping and maritime trade. The Belt and Road Initiative and growing e-commerce have the potential to boost seaborne trade volumes, while the digitalization of maritime transport will help the industry respond to the increased demand with enhanced efficiency.

3) Excessive new capacity
From the supply-side perspective, overly optimistic carriers competing for market share may order excessive new capacity, leading to worsened shipping market conditions. This, in turn, will upset the supply and demand balance and have repercussions on freight-rate levels and volatility, transport costs, as well as earnings.

4) Consolidation
Liner shipping consolidation through mergers and alliances has been on the rise over recent years in response to lower demand levels and oversupplied shipping capacity dominated by mega container vessels. The way this affects competition, and the potential for market power abuse by large shipping lines as well as the related impact on smaller players, remains a concern.

5) The relationship between ports and container shipping lines
Alliance restructuring, and larger vessel deployment is also redefining the relationship between ports and container shipping lines. Competition authorities and maritime transport regulators should also analyze the impact of market concentration and alliance deployment on the relationship between ports and carriers. Areas of interest span the selection of ports-of-call, the configuration of liner shipping networks, the distribution of costs and benefits between container shipping and ports, and approaches to container terminal concessions.

6) Scale
The value of shipping can no longer be determined by scale alone. The ability of the sector to leverage relevant technological advances is as increasingly important.

7) Climate change
Efforts to curb the carbon footprint and improve the environmental performance of international shipping remain high on the international agenda. The initial strategy adopted in April 2018 by the International Maritime Organization to reduce annual greenhouse gas emissions from ships by at least 50% by 2050, compared to 2008, is a particularly important development. On the issue of air pollution, the global limit of 0.5% on sulphur in fuel oil will come into effect on 1 January 2020. To ensure consistent implementation of the global cap on sulphur, it will be important for ship owners and operators to continue to consider and adopt various strategies, including installing scrubbers and switching to liquefied natural gas and other low-sulphur fuels.

Source: https://unctad.org; Photo: Marek Grzybowski

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Brexit a sprawa Polska

Brexit sprawi, że Wielkiej Brytanii ubędzie 100 mld funtów do 2030 r. oszacowali eksperci Narodowego Instytutu Badań Gospodarczych i Społecznych.  Polski eksport do Wielkiej Brytanii to ponad 12 mld funtów. Część polskich towarów dociera na Wyspy polskim transportem drogowym.  Promami i tunelem  przez kanał dociera do Wielkiej Brytanii około 450 tys. polskich ciężarówek.

15 stycznia Brytyjska Izba Gmin odrzuciła 432 głosami projekt umowy o warunkach wyjścia Wielkiej Brytanii z Unii Europejskiej. Za porozumieniem głosowało 202 jedynie członków parlamentu. Natychmiast po głosowaniu zareagowały władze British Ports Association.

Wzywamy rząd do natychmiastowego przedstawienia alternatywnych planów działania i zrobienia wszystkiego, co jest konieczne, aby uniknąć nieuprawnionego wycofania się z UE” – opublikował stanowisko Stowarzyszenia Portów Brytyjskich  Richard Ballantyne, Chief Executive, British Ports Association stwierdzając, że  ponieważ „jesteśmy bardzo blisko dnia wyjścia z UE… porty będą  oczekiwać gwarancji, że znajdzie się czas na dalsze negocjacje, aby uniknąć opuszczenia przez Wielką Brytanię UE na niekorzystnych warunkach”.

Koszty wyjścia. Narodowy Instytut Badań Ekonomicznych i Społecznych (NIESR – National Institute of Economic and Social Research’s) opracował  scenariusze ekonomicznych  skutków Brexitu. Pod uwagę brano łagodne wyjście Wielkiej Brytanii z UE   w marcu 2019 r. i wejście w okres przejściowy trwający do grudnia 2020 r. Eksperci NIESR, stwierdzili, że nawet w tych warunkach  dojdzie do ogromnej redukcji handlu i inwestycji. PKB zmniejszy się o 3,9% do 2030 r. “To odpowiada wynikom gospodarczym Wali lub Londynu”  – wyjaśniają obrazowo eksperci NIESR. Scenariusz pesymistyczny zakłada, koszty Brexitu, obniżą PKB o 5,5%, czyli o 140 mld funtów. Przypomnijmy, że po recesji w latach 2008-2009 PKB Wielkiej Brytanii systematycznie rosło od 1,7% do 2,9% ( w zależności od roku). Jednak PKB na mieszkańca po spadku o 18,7% w 2009 r. rosło do 2014 r., by w kolejnych latach systematycznie maleć.

PKB na osobę spadnie o 3% pod koniec pierwszej dekady funkcjonowanie  poza UE prognozuje NIESR. Oznacza to zmniejszenie  PKB dla każdego mieszkańca o 1 090 funtów w cenach z 2018 r. Oszacowano również, że całkowita wymiana handlowa między Wielką Brytanią i UE może zmaleć o 46%. W raporcie zaprojektowano również łagodniejsze efekty Brexitu. Jeśli udało by się pozostać  w unii celnej po zakończeniu okresu przejściowego, a więc poprzez zastosowanie tak zwanego “irlandzkiego” mechanizmu ochronnego, oznaczałoby to utracenie około 70 mld funtów rocznie do 2030 r., a nie 100 mld funtów.

Skutki dla Polski. Brexit będzie niósł negatywne konsekwencje dla Polaków pozostających w Wielkiej Brytanii  jak silnie powiązanej z nią gospodarczo Irlandii. Wymiana handlowa Republiki Irlandii z Wielką Brytanią osiąga rocznie wartość około 65 miliardów euro rocznie i zapewnia utrzymanie  400 tys. miejsc pracy w obu krajach. Swój udział w produkcji i wymianie handlowej między obydwoma sąsiadami mają również Polacy pracujący w rolnictwie i przetwórstwie spożywczym. Na przykład irlandzcy rolnicy i mleczarnie każdego roku sprzedają w Wielkiej Brytanii 100 tys. ton sera.  Wraz z dostawami sera ponad połowa eksportu wołowiny o wartości 2,5 mld euro trafia do konsumentów Wielkiej Brytanii.

więcej: www.pgt.pl

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Deloitte – Annual Review of Football Finance 2019

This 28th edition charts the latest movements on the ever fluid football finance landscape. Whilst the Premier League retains its leadership in financial terms, the Premier League clubs face challenges to continue to deliver revenue growth and profitability. Meanwhile, Championship clubs are increasingly gambling to reach the top, and strenuous and creative efforts are being made by other European football leagues to enhance their own global appeal and close the gap to the Premier League.


You’ve got to hold and give
In a Premier League season which saw Manchester City achieve the widest winning points margin in history between first and second place, Premier League clubs were unable to extend their own significant revenue lead in global football, as the German Bundesliga narrowed the revenue gap slightly. Nonetheless, the Premier League comfortably managed to hold its position as the largest revenue generating league in the world.

The Bundesliga benefited from the commencement of a new broadcasting deal, which saw a step-change in the league’s broadcast revenue. Whilst the Premier League’s closest rivals are seeking to play catch up with recent growth in their respective broadcast deals, the 2019/20-2021/22 Premier League broadcast rights cycle has seen more marginal net increases as international growth compensated for a domestic reduction. For context, it should be remembered that this follows two previous cycles of substantial broadcast revenue growth.
Therefore, it is imperative for Premier League clubs to remain dynamic in the creation of their own revenue, with a focus on matchday and commercial revenues, in order to maintain its substantial revenue advantage.
Tottenham Hotspur’s new stadium, which opened its doors in April 2019, is the highest profile example of such dynamism. The stadium has been designed and built with a view to operating not just as a football stadium for 90 minutes, but rather an entertainment destination, including a ‘Sky Walk’ and its own microbrewery, as well as a ten-year partnership with the NFL to be the dedicated home of the NFL in the UK.
With regards to commercial revenue, many Premier League and European clubs are looking to continue to utilise and grow their global footprint and popularity created in part through broadcast exposure in order to drive interest, and more importantly value, from their commercial partners. The key to success is connecting with and delivering value to their worldwide fanbase. Four Premier League teams are competing in the Premier League Asian Trophy in Shanghai in July 2019, and pre-season friendlies announced to date cover eight different countries, with China and USA being the most popular destinations, owing to the perceived commercial growth potential in relatively underdeveloped football markets in the world’s two largest economies.
A record five teams competing in the UEFA Champions League helped drive the Premier League clubs’ record revenue in 2017/18 . The lucrative value of this competition to the ‘big six’, as well as the intensely competitive nature of the division itself, has resulted in clubs spending more of their revenue on wages to obtain and retain the best playing talent. This was clearly evident with two record transfer windows in the 2017/18 season, as well as an increase in the wages to revenue ratio in the Premier League.
Given the onus is now on clubs to generate revenue growth from sources other than broadcast revenue, coupled with the higher levels of wage spend, it may put downward pressure on pre-tax profits from the record breaking levels of recent years.
Commendably, in addition to parachute payments to relegated clubs, each season the Premier League provides contributions to support the wider football pyramid and various charitable causes. This was about £200m in 2017/18, equivalent to almost 7% of the League’s total central revenues for the year. Meanwhile, £211m exited the game in payments by Premier League clubs to agents.
As the Premier League and its clubs have enjoyed record revenues, profitability and investment in recent years, there is increased opportunity and pressure to further boost the future level of support to the wider football pyramid, charitable donations and good causes. Additional investment in a range of initiatives could undoubtedly benefit communities and enhance football’s role and position in society. For example, more investment to provide pitches and facilities for grassroots football, to help develop the women’s game; to promote anti-discrimination activities; to promote mental health and lifestyle issues; and to support the education and betterment of the next generation.

Dan Jones, Partner
www.deloitte.co.uk/sportsbusinessgroup

More: Annual Review of Football Finance 2019

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China Brief: The state of the economy

Pundits have been buzzing in recent months about the slowdown of China’s economic juggernaut. There is evident cooling of GDP growth, especially since the middle of last year, and sales of cars and smartphones have been dropping steeply. Some high-profile companies are flashing warnings of plunging sales and some even of job cuts.

Yet, despite the doom and gloom China continues to rack up one of the most enviable growth rates in the world, adding the equivalent of “another Australia” each year. Consumers continue to trade up to more expensive premium goods and some companies are registering record sales. So the gloom is not uniform. What do the facts tell us about what to expect in 2019? In this first edition of China Brief, we take a quick look at some of the key drivers shaping China’s economy today.

1. Growth is slowing—but China is still adding the equivalent of Australia every year

Economic activity weakened in 2018: Official statistics placed real GDP growth at 6.6 percent in 2018, the lowest rate since 1990. While some observers may challenge the precision of the official numbers, this much is true: The Chinese economy is slowing. The McKinsey Global Institute’s Economic Activity Index, which tracks the performance of the Chinese economy by looking at a basket of 57 different indicators ranging from retail and property sales to electricity consumption, echoes the dipping trend line in China’s official GDP numbers (Exhibit 1).

The Economic Activity Index takes a broad set of factors into account and has fluctuated more than raw GDP over the last decade, rising higher than GDP in the double-digit period from 2005-2008, and then again from 2010-13. The Index has been lower than GDP for the last four years, and currently hovers at levels similar to 2015-16, when there were similar fears of a hard landing for China’s high growth economy.
The economy is expected to continue to soften in 2019, with consensus forecasts expecting GDP growth to land somewhere between 6.0 and 6.2 percent this year.
Yes, China’s economic engine is cooling down, yet it continues to rack up one of the fastest rates of economic growth in the world. Given its enormous scale, this translates into substantial additions in absolute terms: This year, China will add the equivalent of the entire Australian economy to its GDP.

By Nick Leung, a senior partner in McKinsey’s Hong Kong office.

More: www.mckinsey.com

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The Most Innovative Companies 2019

This article is a chapter from the BCG report, The Most Innovative Companies 2019: The Rise of AI, Platforms, and Ecosystems.

Users of Google’s email software recently discovered that Gmail was offering to finish their sentences for them. This new Smart Compose feature relies on Google’s expertise in artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML), along with billions of training examples and the company’s cloud-based Tensor Processing technology, to intuit what Gmail users want to say—often faster than the users can complete their own thoughts.

In a world where computers can compose notes to your friends, it’s hardly surprising that the theme of BCG’s 13th annual global innovation survey and report is the rising importance of AI and of platforms that support innovation. This is not an out-of-the-blue development. Our last few reports have highlighted the crucial role of science and technology in innovation, the impact of digital technologies on both digital natives and more traditional industries, and strong innovators’ increasing use of various internal and external vehicles to uncover new ideas. This year’s survey shows that AI use is rapidly expanding and that many companies are relying more on platforms and their cousin, ecosystems, to support their innovations efforts.

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Two New Forces

Most companies are at least exploring the use of AI, and strong innovators are seeing positive results. Nine out of ten respondents in our current survey say that their companies are investing in AI, and more than 30% expect AI to have the greatest impact of any innovation area on their industry over the next three to five years. (See Exhibit 2.) Four in ten self-described strong innovators report receiving more than 15% of their sales from AI-enabled products, compared with less than one in ten weak innovators. In a companion article, we take an in-depth look at the widening gap in where and how AI is affecting innovation. (See the companion article “AI Powers a New Innovation Machine.”)

Platforms and ecosystems serve multiple functions, including facilitating (and sometimes profiting from) the innovation of others, expanding reach and collaboration, and enabling new multiparty solutions and offerings. Again, strong innovators are more likely than weak ones to expect a significant impact within three to five years and to be actively targeting these areas. (See Exhibit 3.) Strong innovators also show other signs of being focused on external innovation. For example 75% report using incubators, 81% leverage academic partnerships, and 83% partner with other companies. Weak innovators lag consistently in all of these areas.

Platforms are technologies that provide a foundation for developing other business offerings. Numerous industrial goods companies, including Siemens (number 16) and Boeing (number 11), have built substantial platform businesses in predictive maintenance to complement their traditional engineering and manufacturing endeavors. Amazon, Microsoft, and IBM, among others, offer a range of software and services from their cloud platforms.

Ecosystems go a step further and leverage a range of partners that pull together the underlying technologies, applications, software platforms, and services needed to produce an integrated solution. (See “The Emerging Art of Ecosystem Management,” BCG article, January 2019.) The two main mobile operating systems—Google’s Android and Apple’s iOS—have grown into complex ecosystems of telcos, device manufacturers, service providers, and app developers, among others. Rapidly changing technologies and growing customer demand for a highly customized user experience further amplify the need for partnerships.

The opportunity to innovate entirely new revenue streams, business models, and sources of continuing advantage is particularly strong for B2B businesses, thanks to the masses of data that devices connected to the Internet of Things (IoT) generate. Data ecosystems will play a critical role in defining the future of competition in many B2B industries. (See “How IoT Data Ecosystems Will Transform B2B Competition,” BCG article, July 2018.)

Authors: Michael Ringel, Senior Partner & Managing Director, Boston; Florian Grassl, Partner & Managing Director, Munich; Ramón Baeza, Senior Partner & Managing Director, Madrid

More: www.bcg.com